Ashley Tellis, a geopolitics expert, stated that India has accurately assessed US President Donald Trump's objective of imposing tariffs and is actively addressing these concerns.

Tellis noted India's willingness to drastically reduce tariffs in the hope of reciprocal benefits, highlighting that Trump's primary target with India is increasing market access, an issue that dates back to his first term.

While Tellis acknowledges Trump's long-held views on the global trading system and his current strong position to act on them, he cautions against attributing a grand strategy to the use of tariffs as penalty instruments, pointing to the President's strong impulses.

Ashley J Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shared insights into U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump during his remarks at the Carnegie India Global Technology Summit. Tellis emphasized that Trump's longstanding views on the global trading system have shaped his approach to tariffs and trade negotiations.

He noted that Trump's administration had attempted to negotiate a package addressing tariff barriers with India during his first term, but these efforts did not yield a conclusive agreement. This reflects Trump's broader fixation on increasing U.S. market access globally, including India, which has been a point of contention due to its protectionist trade policies.

Tellis argued that while Trump's recent actions align with complaints he has expressed over decades, they lack a cohesive grand strategy. He cautioned against interpreting tariffs as part of a calculated framework, instead describing them as penalty instruments used in an ad hoc manner. This approach highlights the transactional nature of Trump's economic policies, which prioritize immediate gains over long-term strategic coherence.

The U.S.-India trade relationship has been particularly impacted by this dynamic. Despite mutual efforts to deepen defence cooperation and enhance strategic ties, trade negotiations have faced hurdles due to India's reluctance to open its markets fully and Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Tellis underscored the need for both nations to reconcile their economic interests while preserving their broader strategic partnership.

Ashley Tellis provided an insightful analysis of President Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly in relation to India, emphasizing the President's longstanding views on the global trading system and his current ability to act on them. Tellis noted that Trump's actions are consistent with complaints he has held for decades, suggesting they are not part of a systematic master plan but rather driven by strong impulses and specific objectives.

Regarding India, the focus is on increasing market access, a continuation of efforts from Trump’s first term when negotiations on tariff and non-tariff barriers failed to conclude successfully India has responded by proposing significant tariff reductions on various goods to address Trump's concerns and secure reciprocal benefits during the 90-day pause on tariffs.

However, Tellis highlighted the potential political challenges arising from the asymmetry in timing between India's concessions and the implementation of reciprocal benefits.

Trump's broader tariff strategy, according to Tellis, lacks coherence due to its contradictory impulses. While targeting specific countries like India with clear objectives, his approach to international trade often appears fragmented.

This aligns with broader critiques of Trump's trade policies, which have disrupted multilateral systems in favour of bilateral negotiations, eroding alliances and destabilizing the liberal world order. For instance, Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy reflects his criticism of India’s high import duties and aims to address the $45.6 billion trade deficit between the two nations. India has already reduced average tariffs from 13% to 11% and is exploring further reductions to avoid reciprocal tariffs.

The recent White House meeting between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi further underscored these dynamics. Modi sought to strengthen ties by addressing trade concerns and expanding partnerships in defence, technology, and energy.

The meeting resulted in agreements to enhance defence ties, including potential purchases of F-35 warplanes, and increased energy imports from the U.S., which could contribute significantly to reducing the trade deficit. Both leaders agreed to negotiate the initial phase of a trade agreement by fall 2025, focusing on market access, tariff reductions, and supply chain integration.

While Trump's trade policies aim to reshape global dynamics in favour of U.S. interests, they have introduced significant uncertainty into international trade relations. His unilateral approach risks undermining established norms of globalization and could lead to political and economic challenges for partner nations like India as they navigate these shifting dynamics.

Shruti Rajagopalan, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Centre, added an economist's perspective, emphasizing the complexity of international trade and supply chains with over 17,000 ten-digit classifications. She highlighted that realigning supply chains in response to trade changes is a slow process.

ANI