India's Ministry of Defence has recently resumed the long-delayed process of procuring multi-role fighter aircraft, representing a critical juncture in the nation's defence modernisation efforts. The procurement of 114 aircraft under the 'Make in India' initiative represents not merely an equipment purchase but a strategic opportunity to develop indigenous aerospace capabilities, reduce import dependence, and strengthen national security posture.

This renewed focus comes at a crucial time when regional security dynamics are evolving rapidly with Pakistan's acquisition of Chinese stealth fighters and as India continues to operate with a significant squadron deficit compared to authorised strength.

Current State of India's Air Force And Modernisation Challenges

The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates with approximately 31 combat squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42, creating a significant capability gap in India's air defence posture. This deficit has persisted for years despite ongoing modernisation efforts that began in the late 1990s to replace ageing Soviet-era equipment. The IAF has ambitious plans to attain 42 squadron strength by 2035 and deploy 450 fighter jets along each of its borders with Pakistan and China, while also indigenising its entire fighter fleet by 2042.

However, these targets appear increasingly difficult to achieve. Current projections suggest that even with timely implementation of projects like the TEJAS MK-1A, TEJAS MK-2, and the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), India might only reach 35-36 squadron strength by 2035. The seven-year delay in the MRFA procurement process, which was initially launched in 2018, has further complicated the timeline for strengthening India's air combat capabilities during a period when regional threats have intensified.

The urgency of this modernisation has been highlighted by developments across the border, where Pakistan's Air Force is preparing to acquire Chinese fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon stealth fighter aircraft, potentially receiving up to 36 aircraft by the end of this decade. This acquisition represents part of what analysts describe as a "joint strategy and synergy to neutralise the threat emanating from India," creating additional pressure for India to accelerate its own fighter jet procurement programs.

Evolution of India's Defence Procurement Policy

India's approach to defence procurement has undergone significant evolution, particularly with the formulation of the Strategic Partnership (SP) policy in 2017. This policy was originally designed to nurture private sector capability in manufacturing major defence platforms including aircraft, submarines, helicopters, and armoured vehicles. The initiative represented an important shift in strategic thinking, recognising the need to diversify beyond the traditionally dominant defence public sector units.

However, the implementation of this policy has faced challenges, including its subsequent dilution to accommodate public sector enterprises alongside private ones. This compromised the original intent of developing robust private sector participation in the defence manufacturing ecosystem. The current procurement approach for the 114 MRFA indicates a potential further adjustment, with the Ministry of Defence likely to float an open tender seeking requests for information (RFI) for manufacturing aircraft in India through joint venture partnerships.

The government has instituted a significant policy change, now requiring that the selected MRFA vendor establish complete manufacturing capabilities in India in partnership with a local entity. This represents the first time that India will insist on manufacturing complete aircraft domestically with comprehensive technology transfer, moving beyond the partial manufacturing under previous offset obligations. This policy shift demonstrates India's growing confidence in leveraging its position as a major defence market to secure favourable terms for technology transfer and indigenous manufacturing.

Strategic Importance of The MRFA Project

The MRFA acquisition represents more than just a military procurement; it constitutes a strategic roadmap for creating a vibrant aerospace ecosystem critical for India's self-reliance ambitions. With an estimated value of approximately $20 billion, this is one of the world's largest defence deals in recent times. The competition includes major global aerospace manufacturers such as Dassault (Rafale), Boeing (Super Hornet F/A-18), SAAB (Gripen), Lockheed Martin (F-21), MiG (MiG-35), and Eurofighter Typhoon.

While this procurement addresses immediate operational requirements for the IAF, its true significance lies in its potential to transform India's aerospace manufacturing capabilities. Successfully implemented, this project could establish the foundation for India to eventually design and manufacture advanced fighter aircraft domestically, reducing long-term strategic vulnerability from import dependence.

The selection of an appropriate Indian partner is crucial to this vision. Companies with demonstrated long-term commitment to aerospace manufacturing must be prioritised. The Tata-Airbus venture for manufacturing C295 transport aircraft has already demonstrated that Indian companies possess the technical capability and determination to succeed in complex aerospace manufacturing programs. This experience provides a foundation that can be built upon for the more complex fighter aircraft manufacturing ecosystem.

Technology Transfer And Indigenous Manufacturing Challenges

One of the central challenges in India's fighter jet procurement strategy involves technology transfer. Despite being one of the world's largest defence importers, India has historically struggled to leverage its buyer power to secure meaningful technology transfers, unlike countries such as South Korea. This challenge continues to manifest in the MRFA procurement, with reports indicating that some manufacturers, particularly Dassault Aviation (maker of Rafale jets), are reluctant to transfer critical technologies for production in India.

The effectiveness of India's technology transfer requirements will significantly determine the long-term strategic value of the MRFA procurement. Complete indigenisation of fighter aircraft manufacturing cannot realistically be achieved in a single project. Rather, it requires a protracted process of manufacturing multiple generations of aircraft through progressive stages of technology assimilation, research and development, and innovation.

India's recent success in securing an agreement with GE Aerospace to produce F414 jet engines in India with 80% technology transfer demonstrates that significant technology transfer arrangements are possible when negotiations are conducted with strategic foresight. This precedent should inform the approach to the MRFA procurement, balancing immediate operational needs with long-term technology acquisition objectives.

Navigating Pitfalls In The Procurement Process

India's defence acquisition processes have historically encountered numerous obstacles that delayed or derailed major projects. The MRFA procurement must avoid these common pitfalls to achieve timely implementation. Unrealistic expectations regarding technology transfer have frequently stalled negotiations. It's important to recognise that some key technologies may be imported by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) itself, making their transfer to India impractical regardless of contractual requirements.

Similarly, the degree of import dependence of the OEM needs careful evaluation in the current geopolitical context, where international sanctions and transactional diplomacy could interrupt supply chains. Questions of control and quality assurance, which have complicated previous projects, require thoughtful resolution that respects both India's sovereignty interests and the OEM's reputation concerns.

The procurement process should provide sufficient flexibility to the Defence Acquisition Council to resolve potential deadlocks without compromising the fundamental integrity of the process. Minor technical issues should not be allowed to stall negotiations that are strategically vital for national security. This requires a mature approach that prioritises the strategic objective of building indigenous capabilities over rigid procedural adherence.

Building A Sustainable Aerospace Ecosystem

For the MRFA project to deliver its full potential value to India, it must be conceptualised not merely as the production of 114 aircraft but as the foundation of a sustainable aerospace ecosystem. This requires extending the vision beyond the initial manufacturing phase to encompass lifecycle support, upgrades, and eventual development of next-generation variants.

The Indian partner selected for this project must demonstrate not only current manufacturing capability but also the vision and commitment to invest in future-oriented research and development. This long-term partnership approach would enable seamless future procurements and motivate the Indian partner to make substantial investments in capability development with reasonable assurance of future returns.

Successful examples like the Super Sukhoi upgrade program, which will increase indigenous content to 78% while extending service life beyond 2055, demonstrate the potential for progressive indigenisation through sustained engagement. This program involves collaboration between Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and private sector companies, creating a model for the type of ecosystem development that should be targeted with the MRFA project.

International And Regional Context

India's fighter jet acquisition strategy exists within a complex international and regional context that must inform procurement decisions. While the United States has positioned its aircraft (F-16 Block 70 and F/A-18 Super Hornet Block III) as suitable candidates for India's requirements, other competitors including Russian, French, Swedish and European options remain in contention. The selection decision carries diplomatic implications beyond the technical and economic considerations.

The emerging security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly China's growing military capabilities and regional assertions, are relevant considerations. The United States has explicitly recognised India's strategic importance in its shift from an Asia-Pacific to an Indo-Pacific focus, creating potential alignment of interests in defence cooperation. However, India must balance these opportunities against its traditional policy of strategic autonomy and diversified defence partnerships.

Pakistan's acquisition of Chinese stealth fighters adds urgency to India's fighter modernisation but shouldn't precipitate hasty decisions that compromise long-term strategic objectives. Instead, it should reinforce the importance of developing sustainable indigenous capabilities that reduce vulnerability to external supply disruptions and technology denial regimes.

Conclusion: Toward Strategic Self-Reliance

India's renewed effort to procure 114 multi-role fighter aircraft presents a critical opportunity to advance beyond the cyclic pattern of import-dependent modernisation toward genuine strategic self-reliance in aerospace manufacturing. The success of this endeavour depends not merely on selecting the right aircraft but on structuring the acquisition to maximise technology transfer, develop indigenous capabilities, and establish the foundation for a sustainable aerospace manufacturing ecosystem.

The procurement process must be driven by a long-term vision of capability building rather than the immediate objective of platform acquisition. It should resist diplomatic pressures that might compromise India's strategic interests while pragmatically navigating the challenges of technology transfer. With appropriate partner selection, negotiation strategy, and implementation approach, the MRFA project can serve as a transformative step toward India's aspiration of becoming an aerospace manufacturing power with the capacity to design and produce advanced fighter aircraft domestically.

The stakes extend beyond military modernisation to encompass India's broader technological and industrial development ambitions. A successful outcome will require courage, pragmatism, and strategic foresight from decision-makers to overcome the obstacles that have delayed similar projects in the past. The time for decisive action has arrived, with regional security developments underscoring the costs of further delay in strengthening India's air defence capabilities.

IDN