The AUKUS agreement, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, aims to bolster Australia's defence capabilities by providing nuclear-powered submarines. However, the deal faces scrutiny due to strategic, political, and logistical challenges.

Australia plans to acquire three Virginia-class submarines from the U.S. starting in 2032, with a long-term goal of building SSN-AUKUS submarines domestically by 2040.

Concerns have arisen in Washington about transferring submarines from the U.S. fleet to Australia, potentially weakening deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific region. Experts argue that Australia's reluctance to openly discuss using these submarines in wartime scenarios undermines their strategic value.

U.S. shipyards face delays in meeting their own Navy's needs, raising doubts about whether they can support Australia's submarine acquisition. Additionally, Australia must pay $2 billion by 2025 to upgrade its submarine shipyards.

Budget constraints and workforce shortages in Australia could further delay the program.

Domestic politics in Australia may impact AUKUS implementation. Disappointment over Trump's tariffs and calls for a review of the submarine deal have intensified public scrutiny ahead of the May 2025 election.

While major Australian parties support AUKUS, independent lawmakers critical of Trump could gain influence if a hung parliament emerges.

In simulated war games, Australian commanders opted not to deploy nuclear-powered submarines offensively against China but instead focused on defending Australia's northern approaches. This strategy highlights Australia's priority of protecting its mainland as a forward base for U.S. forces rather than engaging directly in regional conflicts like Taiwan.

Critics argue that AUKUS sets a precedent for non-nuclear states using naval reactor programs under reduced oversight, potentially undermining global non-proliferation efforts.

The AUKUS agreement is pivotal for countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific but faces significant hurdles related to production capacity, strategic alignment, and political support. While it strengthens alliances and enhances Australia's defence capabilities, questions remain about its long-term feasibility and effectiveness in deterring aggression.

Reuters