Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi recently stressed that the threat of a two-front war involving China and Pakistan is no longer a possibility but a reality.

This warning comes as China's rise as a dominant economic and strategic force complicates India's efforts to lead the Global South. General Dwivedi highlighted the growing strategic coordination between China and Pakistan, describing it as "near absolute collusivity," which further compounds the threat to India's security.

Delivering the fourth General Bipin Rawat Memorial Lecture in Delhi, he highlighted the increasing complexity China’s rise brings to global geopolitics.

General Dwivedi noted that China's economic and strategic dominance adds complexity to global geopolitics, hindering India's ambition to emerge as a natural leader of the Global South. He urged India to focus on Africa as a future power centre, leveraging its demographic and geographic advantages to enhance its global standing. Despite being the world's largest democracy with a key geostrategic location, India faces challenges in shaping international policies, often being blocked from influencing key decisions.

The Army Chief also discussed the evolving global order, pointing out how recent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have reshaped alliances. He noted China's challenge to the existing rules-based system through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the U.S.'s reinforcement of alliances like AUKUS and Quad. General Dwivedi emphasised the need for a reimagined approach to security, advocating for military-civil fusion, strategic alliances, and leveraging emerging technologies to enhance deterrence.

General Dwivedi pointed to the obstacles India faces in shaping international policies. He noted that despite its credentials—the largest population, the world’s largest democracy, and a key geostrategic location—India continues to struggle for greater influence.

“We have been repeatedly blocked, leaving us with little ability to shape key international decisions directly. Even BRICS has faced setbacks. Its purported attempt to upend the mighty US dollar has invited an open pushback from the Trump administration. In light of the same, we need to closely watch SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation),” he said.

In his address, General Dwivedi stressed that India must adapt its security strategy to address the changing geopolitical landscape. He highlighted the importance of "multi-alignment" and an inclusive approach to security, emphasising the role of technology as a key factor in deterrence. Additionally, he expressed concerns over China's militarisation of space, which could escalate tensions and increase the risk of orbital debris.

China-Pakistan Axis

The strategic relationship between China and Pakistan has been increasingly highlighted as a significant concern for India, particularly in terms of military coordination and economic cooperation. General Dwivedi recently reiterated the "near absolute collusivity" between China and Pakistan, underscoring the reality of a two-front threat for India.

This concern is not new; it echoes previous warnings by Indian military leaders, including the late General Bipin Rawat, who noted that Chinese economic cooperation with Pakistan, especially in regions like Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, poses a significant threat to India's security.

China and Pakistan have been strengthening their partnership across various sectors, including military, economic, and diplomatic fields. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, has further solidified their alliance. CPEC not only enhances economic ties but also has strategic implications, as it involves significant infrastructure development and investment in Pakistan. Recently, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to advancing CPEC 2.0, focusing on industrialisation, clean energy, and livelihood projects.

The deepening China-Pakistan alliance presents a complex challenge for India. The possibility of coordinated action by China and Pakistan along India's northern and western borders necessitates high levels of military preparedness. While a collaborative military threat from both sides is a concern, the more likely scenario involves Pakistan exploiting tensions between India and China to its advantage, particularly in disputed regions like Kashmir.

In response to these developments, Indian military leaders have emphasised the need for preparedness against potential threats from both fronts. The unsettled nature of India's borders with China and Pakistan means that the country must be vigilant and ready to respond to any military engagement on either front. The strategic coordination between China and Pakistan has heightened the urgency for India to strengthen its military capabilities and diplomatic efforts to address these emerging threats effectively.

ET News