Security negotiations between India and its Southeast Asian neighbours have stepped up in recent months, observes Philippines-based analyst Don McLain Gill. Flexible in its engagement strategies, India has found a role as an alternative security partner for countries in the region.

As uncertainty grows between the United States and China, Southeast Asia is increasingly looking towards India as a strategic partner. This shift is driven by the region's desire to diversify its economic and security ties amidst the intensifying competition between the two global powers.

The dynamics between the United States and China have been marked by periods of tension and cooperation, with both nations navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. Former President Donald Trump often highlighted his "great relationship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping, though this rapport did not necessarily translate into significant policy breakthroughs.

The Biden administration has sought to manage U.S.-China relations by emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation while maintaining a strong stance on issues like Taiwan and human rights.

In the Western Pacific, the prospect of a U.S.-China détente poses significant challenges for Southeast Asian states. These nations are concerned about potential limitations on their strategic manoeuvrability and are proactively diversifying their security partnerships to maintain flexibility.

A U.S.-China agreement could complicate national security calculations for these states, prompting them to adopt an equidistant stance between both powers. This has led to increased defence cooperation with other like-minded partners, including notable but largely unpublicized security negotiations between India and Southeast Asian countries.

The U.S. military strategy in the Pacific is shifting towards a "scatter and survive" approach, reflecting the growing strength of China in the region.

This strategic pivot underscores the evolving nature of U.S.-China relations and the challenges faced by regional actors in navigating these dynamics. As both the U.S. and China continue to assert their influence, Southeast Asian states must balance their relationships with both powers while ensuring their own security and sovereignty.

India and Vietnam are on the cusp of finalising a significant $700 million deal for the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile system. This agreement would make Vietnam the second country, after the Philippines, to acquire these advanced missiles. The BrahMos missile is renowned for its speed, reaching up to Mach 2.8, and its range, which can extend from 290Km in its standard version to between 400 and 500Km in upgraded variants. Its "fire and forget" capability ensures precision targeting while maintaining a low radar signature, making it challenging to detect or intercept.

This deal reflects a strategic deepening of defence ties between India and Vietnam, particularly in the context of regional security dynamics. Vietnam's interest in the BrahMos system is driven by its desire to bolster maritime defence capabilities, especially in response to China's assertive actions in the South China Sea. The acquisition of BrahMos missiles aligns with Vietnam's broader strategy to diversify its defence imports and reduce reliance on Russian weaponry, amidst global geopolitical shifts.

The BrahMos missile system has emerged as a symbol of India's growing stature in the global defence export market. Following the successful delivery of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines in 2022, this deal with Vietnam underscores India's expanding role in Southeast Asia's security landscape. Additionally, Indonesia is also in negotiations for a separate BrahMos deal, further solidifying India's influence in the region through its Act East Policy. The proliferation of BrahMos missiles in Southeast Asia poses significant implications for regional security, particularly concerning China's strategic interests.

India's Act East Policy (AEP), which transformed from the earlier Look East Policy, has been instrumental in strengthening ties with Southeast Asia. The AEP focuses on enhancing connectivity, cultural exchange, and economic integration, with significant projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

Southeast Asia's strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region has heightened due to its position astride major trade routes and natural resources. Both the U.S. and China are keenly aware of this significance, leading to increased diplomatic and economic engagement with the region. However, Southeast Asian nations generally prefer not to take sides, seeking instead to maintain a balance between these powers.

India's growing economy and military capabilities offer ASEAN a counterbalance to China's influence. ASEAN countries view India as a hedge against China's assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea. Despite challenges such as the civil war in Myanmar and high non-tariff barriers, India remains committed to deepening its strategic partnerships with ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Vietnam.

Cultural and educational exchanges, including initiatives like the ASEAN-India Network of Think-Tanks and the promotion of shared cultural heritage, further strengthen these ties.

However, India faces challenges in its pursuit of stronger Southeast Asian ties. The region's perception of India's capacity for global leadership remains mixed, with some Southeast Asian nations expressing doubts about India's ability to play a significant strategic role.

Additionally, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a strong economic challenge, offering attractive financial incentives to Southeast Asian nations.

Despite these hurdles, India's strategic engagement with ASEAN continues to evolve, driven by mutual interests in regional stability and economic growth.

Base on ThinkChina Report