by Jaydyot Ghosh

First things first, do note that IAF is looking at a precarious situation with drastic reduction of its fighter squadron strength. The fighter strength of the IAF has come down from the highest ever of 47.5 squadrons in the mid-1980s against sanctioned strength of 49 squadrons to a not-so-healthy 31 squadrons in 2025 and will be 29 squadrons at the end of 2025 when the last of 2 MiG-21 Bison squadrons are finally retired.

This will go down further to 27 by 2032 end when the 2 oldest Jaguar squadrons are retired and most probably by 2035 all Jaguars are slated for retirement. Also, the entire fleet of 3 Mirage-2000 and 3 MiG-29 will also be retired from 2035 to 2036.

This means IAF will be left with 21 squadrons by 2037 and when 5 squadrons of DARIN-III Jaguars are put up for retirement by 2040 then by 2045 IAF squadron number will touch 16. A recent report emphasised that IAF lost over 150 fighter jets due to de-induction/retirement in the last 10 years whereas Pakistan and China; the opposing parties in IAF’s 2 front war scenario have together inducted over 450 fighter jets. Add to it the sluggish induction of fighter jets be it TEJAS MK-1, and TEJAS MK-1A both delayed induction due to engine supply issues as well as the snail’s pace in the development of  TEJAS MK-2, TEDBF, AMCA, and HLFT42.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is facing significant challenges in its aircraft modernization efforts, particularly with the TEJAS MK-1 and TEJAS MK-1A programs. These aircraft are powered by General Electric (GE) F404 engines, which are being supplied by the United States.

However, GE has consistently failed to meet its delivery timelines, causing substantial delays in the production and delivery of these jets. Originally scheduled to begin in 2023, the engine deliveries are now expected to start by March 2025, with the first TEJAS MK-1A jets likely to be delivered by late 2025.

The reliability of the U.S. as a supplier has been questioned due to these delays, which have pushed the completion of the TEJAS MK-1 and MK-1A production lines potentially to 2035. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that more advanced projects like the Tejas Mk2, TEDBF (Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter), AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), and HLFT-42 (Hindustan Lead-in Fighter Trainer) are not expected to enter service before the 2038-2040 time frame. This leaves the IAF in a precarious position, especially when compared to the rapid military modernisation efforts of neighbouring countries like China.

The potential for integrating more advanced engines, such as the GE F414, into the TEJAS MK-1A has been explored as a means to enhance performance. The F414 offers higher thrust and could improve the aircraft's combat capabilities, but it would require significant modifications to the airframe and cooling systems. Despite these challenges, the IAF must navigate these delays and technological hurdles to maintain its operational readiness and competitiveness in the region.

IAF Needs 60 Squadron Strength

All India needs to do is to apply simple common-sense ideas, but the point is, who will tell them of these ideas and set the ball rolling. A recent report submitted by IAF says it needs 60 squadrons or 21x60=1,260 fighter jets by 2047. This is 11 more than the previously approved 49 squadrons in 1950s (original requirement was for 54 squadrons). Effectively IAF reached 47.5 squadrons in mid mid-1980s, and has since the mid-2000s been war gaming for a 2-front war with a minimum of 42 squadrons due to falling fighter jet numbers.

The only way it is possible is if the Dassault Rafale production line is set up in India, (most probably in Nagpur, Maharashtra). Do note that the 26 Rafale M contract is set to be signed for the Indian Navy, while the 36 Rafale for IAF bought as part of MMRCA have been inducted while an order for 114 more under MRFA is set to be given (a foregone conclusion unless the USA puts a spanner). But 36+114=150 will still not help IAF shore up numbers up to 1260; even if AMCA arrives by 2040. So the next best option is to set up a Rafale production line in India. India can produce/assemble at least 210 more Rafale or 10 squadrons more to meet its requirement. Add to it the 80 Rafale order for Saudi Arabia and 80 Rafale order set to be given by UAE as replacement of its Mirage 2000 fleet, and 36 Rafale from Indonesia.

So, 210+80+80+36=406 Rafale can be built in India, but the condition is that the production line needs to be setup in the next 2 years; since Dassault will stop Rafale production from 2035 onwards and shift its production focus to the 6th generation FCAS. A production line of over 410 fighter jets manufactured/assembled in India would help the French company Dassault shore its Rafale deliveries which is over 230 in backlog as per current order books. Not just that the production line in India could help serve not just Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Indonesia as an MRO facility but also could cater to any future customers of Rafale as a production facility if there are any.

Do remember that once, Dassault stops the Rafale fighter jet production from 2035 onwards; it will be difficult to maintain the production line in India, and this production line can be kept running for maximum of another 3 or 4 years after which only spare parts will be available but for that to happen a proper supply chain too needs to be set up in India in the next 2 years since French suppliers for spares for Dassault Rafale will also be shifting their production focus to FCAS from 2035 onwards. Add to it is the quandary of IAF, whether to focus on AMCA as the 5th generation jet or completely shift focus to 6th generation jet; as most of the global fighter jet makers will shift focus to 6th generation jet from 2035 onwards.

This author certainly believe that irrespective of AMCA being developed as a 5.5 generation fighter jet as IAF wants; it would do good to buy 4 or 5 squadrons of Su-57, the 5th generation fighter jet from Russia to acclimatise itself with a 5th generation fighter jet technology until the AMCA arrives after 2040. As a different idea, IAF would do good to promote the development of AMCA not as a 5th generation but as a 6th generation fighter jet, using the Northrop Gruman YF-23 as a base. This is important since a lot of discussions are going on about comparisons between a 5th-generation fighter and a 6th-generation fighter. In all sense and purpose; it will be a great idea to set up a Dassault Rafale production line in India as not only the 210 Rafale jets assembled in India will shore up numbers alongside the purchase of another 70 Su 30 MKI it will also help in developing its supply chain and industrial base that will come in handy in future aircraft development.

This piece is being published as it has been received – it has not been edited/fact-checked by IDN. This essay reflects author's opinions alone