JF-17 Chinese made fighter jet based on the venerable Soviet MiG-21 of Pakistan Air Force

Pakistan's dependence on Chinese defence exports is nearly absolute, with China supplying 81% of Pakistan's weapons imports over the past five years, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

This marks a significant increase from the previous period, where China accounted for 74% of Pakistan's arms imports. The deepening reliance on Chinese military technology has bolstered Pakistan's defence capabilities, particularly in areas such as naval and air power, with acquisitions including advanced submarines, fighter jets, and frigates.

However, this heavy reliance on Chinese defence exports also poses risks for Pakistan. It has made the country's defence procurement somewhat one-dimensional, limiting its ability to diversify its military capabilities.

The political alignment between Pakistan and China, often referred to as an "all-weather friendship," ensures a stable supply chain but also exposes Pakistan to geopolitical risks, especially given China's growing assertiveness in regional affairs.

A Military Built On Imports

The strategic partnership between Pakistan and China extends beyond military cooperation, with economic ties through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Chinese arms are often more affordable and come with flexible payment terms, making them attractive to Pakistan's budget-constrained military. Despite these benefits, the reliance on a single supplier can leave Pakistan vulnerable to potential disruptions in supply chains and technological advancements, should geopolitical tensions escalate.

Pakistan's military has long been reliant on imports to meet its defence needs, with a significant portion of its arms coming from China. Over the past five years, China has supplied an overwhelming 81% of Pakistan's weapons imports, marking a 7% increase from the previous period.

This deepening reliance on Chinese technology and manufacturing has limited Pakistan's ability to diversify its military capabilities, making its defence procurement largely one-dimensional.

Key acquisitions from China include the JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, which are co-developed with China but assembled using predominantly Chinese components.

Pakistan has expanded its naval fleet with Chinese-built Type 054A/P frigates and acquired advanced missile systems, further bolstering its air and naval capabilities.

The reliance on Chinese technology extends to other systems as well, such as long-range reconnaissance drones and VT-4 battle tanks.

Despite these collaborations, Pakistan's domestic arms industry remains heavily dependent on Beijing's technology and manufacturing. This dependency has been exacerbated by geopolitical factors, including sanctions and restrictions from Western suppliers, which have made China an indispensable partner for Pakistan's security needs.

The strategic partnership between Pakistan and China is not only military but also extends into economic domains through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

While Pakistan's military modernisation efforts have been driven by the need to counter India's military advancements and address internal security threats, the lack of indigenous production capabilities continues to pose a challenge.

The country's inability to diversify its military suppliers limits its strategic flexibility and underscores the need for greater self-reliance in defence production. However, achieving this goal will require significant investments in domestic manufacturing and technology development, as well as strategic partnerships that can help Pakistan reduce its reliance on a single supplier.

The Perils of A Single Supplier

Pakistan's heavy reliance on China for military hardware poses significant risks, including a lack of strategic flexibility and potential operational challenges. With China supplying a substantial portion of Pakistan's defence equipment, Islamabad is heavily dependent on Beijing's priorities and decisions. This dependency could become particularly problematic if China's strategic priorities shift or if economic or political tensions arise between the two nations. Such a scenario could leave Pakistan facing serious logistical challenges, similar to what occurred when the United States scaled back its military sales due to concerns over Pakistan's nuclear program and handling of extremist groups.

The historical context of Pakistan's military ties with the United States serves as a cautionary tale. Washington's gradual reduction in military sales forced Islamabad to lean more heavily on China, a trend that could repeat itself if Beijing's priorities change or if it begins dictating terms to Pakistan in exchange for continued military support. Furthermore, Pakistan's reliance on Chinese weapons systems also exposes it to technology bottlenecks. Many of China's military systems are still in development, and their long-term reliability in combat scenarios remains unproven, which could further exacerbate Pakistan's military vulnerabilities.

The deepening strategic reliance on China has raised concerns about Pakistan's autonomy and sovereignty. As Islamabad becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing for both economic and military support, its ability to make independent decisions may be compromised. This imbalance in the Pakistan-China alliance could lead to a situation where Islamabad's security governance is influenced significantly by Beijing's interests, potentially undermining Pakistan's control over its own security affairs.

FP Report