by Nilesh Kunwar

Raging Rhetoric And Stoic Silence

Last Wednesday saw Islamabad in two extreme avatars. On the one hand it once again tried to interfere in India’s internal affairs by denouncing New Delhi’s decision announced a day earlier to ban two J&K based political parties for indulging in unlawful activities prejudicial to national security, integrity and sovereignty. On the other hand, despite being mercilessly pilloried by the opposition on its inept handling of the Jaffar Express hijacking in Balochistan, the government chose to maintain a stoic silence on this unprecedented crisis in the National Assembly.

The international community has learnt to turn a deaf ear to Islamabad’s insatiable appetite for expressing unsolicited comments on J&K. However, its inexplicable decision to maintain a stoic silence and avoid any parliamentary discussion on the train hijacking by Baloch fighters would certainly come as a surprise to many, especially since the fate of its 440 passengers taken hostage by Baloch fighters was unknown. However, for those aware of the ground realities in Pakistan, this strange response was just normal.

It’s no secret that the pliant legislature in Pakistan implicitly follows the narrative released by Rawalpindi through Pakistan army’s media wing Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR). Since the audacious Jaffar Express hijacking had left the Pakistan army’s top brass shell shocked and no official statement on this incident had till then come from the army, the Shehbaz Sharif government conveniently chose to play safe by avoiding any discussion on this incident and thereby obviate risk of annoying Rawalpindi.

An Incongruous Account

ISPR’s account of the incident has [as usual] been so fantastic that rather than providing answers, it has only raised more questions. While the need to divert public attention from the humongous intelligence failure is understandable, but attempting to do so by through false claims in an era of social media predominance fools no one, and an example is DG ISPR Lt Gen Sharif Chaudhary’s March 12 assertion that “around 100 passengers were safely rescued yesterday evening from the terrorists.”

Videos of those allegedly “rescued” by Pakistan are circulating on the internet and the remarkable part is that while they show a long trail of men, women and children making their way through difficult terrain, the absence of any security force personnel is indeed intriguing.

Is it that after having “rescued” the so-called hostages from the clutches of Baloch fighters, the army left them to make it back to safety on their own? DGISPR has neither issued any explanation regarding any signs of security force presence in amateur videos shot by passengers, and he most certainly won’t.

However, with Dawn mentioning in its news report has that “It was not immediately clear whether these people had been freed as the result of kinetic military action, or were among those allegedly freed by the armed assailants,” it’s evident that the media hasn’t swallowed DGISPR’s claim hook, line and sinker. And by referring to the passengers who returned as being “recovered” and not “rescued” by security forces, Dawn has only reaffirmed its serious doubts on the Pakistan army’s narrative.

However, the BBC Urdu news report on this incident has outrightly debunked DGISPR’s claim. It mentions a train passenger named Ishaq revealing that “The attackers started to release some Balochistan residents, as well as women, children and elderly passengers, on Tuesday evening … [and] adding that he was let go when he told them he was a resident of Turbat city in Balochistan, and they saw that he had children and women with him.”

Similarly, Al Jazeera, which usually is quite specific while reporting, also chose to mention that the passengers of the hijacked Jaffar Express who made it back to safety on their own were “released or rescued.” This no-committal reference speaks volumes but it seems that ISPR isn’t interested in listening. However, this hardly matters as the aim of this piece is to highlight the fact that an army that lies to its own people can go to any extent to further its self-serving interests.

Absurd Allegations

ISPR’s contrived narrative of the Jaffar Express incident fails to impress as it is riddled with a host of inconsistencies and contradictions. Similarly, its unsubstantiated allegations regarding involvement of the ubiquitous ‘foreign hand’ are downright hilarious. Readers would recall that ISPR had initially stated that “Intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attack was orchestrated and directed by terrorist ring leaders operating from Afghanistan who were in direct communication with the terrorists throughout the incident.”

During a weekly press briefing on Friday, Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan reiterated that “in this particular incident, we have evidence of calls being traced to Afghanistan.” However in his latest press conference, DGISPR without sharing a shred of evidence suddenly changed track, and by saying, “We must understand that in this terrorist incident in Balochistan, and others before, the main sponsor is your Eastern neighbour,” made a direct accusation against New Delhi. And this is where things really get tricky.

In 2015, the then Pakistan army chief Gen Raheel Sharif had sought to conceal his army’s serious shortcomings by alleging “[India spy agency] RAW’s involvement in whipping up terrorism in Pakistan,” and Rawalpindi has ever since adopted this unproven claim as a pet reply to divert public attention from its operational failures. Though DGISPR may have outrightly ruled out intelligence failure in the Jaffar Express incident, would BLA fighters dare launch such a large scale operation in broad daylight if the security forces were really alert and intelligence agencies doing their job, remains a moot point.

What Next?

Raising the India bogey in order to divert public attention from the hijacking of Jaffar Express by BLA fighters may be able to somewhat contain resentment against the Pakistan army. However, there are credible indications that Pakistani security force casualties could well be in the three digit region and once confirmed will enrage the masses and put Rawalpindi on a spot. Hence, the army’s myopic decision to blame India in a desperate attempt to escape public wrath will build immense public pressure on Rawalpindi to deliver on DGISPR’s pompous assurance that “We will take them [Baloch separatists] on, their facilitators, their abettors, whether inside Pakistan or outside Pakistan.”

As Rawalpindi has made the people of Pakistan believe that India is abetting terrorism in Balochistan, it has no option but to do something that assuages public anger. Since initiating military action would be suicidal, options for Pakistan’s beleaguered army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir are limited. Having precipitated a massive political crisis by manipulating elections that led angry mobs attacking military assets, his only hope of redemption lies in doing something that pleases both the army’s rank and file as well as the people of Pakistan.

So, it’s most likely that Gen Munir would use terrorists that Rawalpindi has nurtured duly supported by army regulars to escalate violence levels across the Line of Control (LoC). Accordingly, the summer of 2025 in J&K is likely to be a hot one with a significant increase in infiltration of terrorists from Pakistan occupied J&K, and one can expect covert strikes in the form of Border Action Team (BAT) operations along the LoC, targeting of military convoys, stand-off attacks on isolated security force posts/camp and use of improvised explosive devices.

There’s also a high probability of a marked increase in the targeting of civilians belonging to the minority community and migrant workers by terrorist groups created by Pakistan army’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) after Article 370 abrogation. Such senseless killings may not make any sense but helps in creating an environment of fear and forcing additional deployment of security forces in the hinterland. Additionally, by orchestrating rampant violence helps Islamabad in spreading disinformation that there’s no normalcy in J&K.

India’s Response

In Pakistan, the army’s image is today at an all time low and for Gen Munir these are indeed desperate times that call for desperate measures. Therefore, India needs to be prepared for an upsurge in terrorist activities and also formulate a comprehensive deterrent-response regime. Since former Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has already sounded the war bugle by publicly declaring that “The Pakistan army firmly stands by the Kashmiris… [and] we are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfill our obligations in this regards,” it’s high time New Delhi redraws its red lines.

While Rawalpindi wouldn’t dare to escalate the situation along the Indo-Pak border by embarking upon military adventurism, it will never cease sponsoring terrorist groups. It refused to do so in 2018 despite US President Donald Trump’s blunt “They give safe haven to the terrorists” tweet, and there’s no reason why it should dismantle its terrorist infrastructure that’s doing well in what Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist group chief Syed Salahuddin aptly described as “fighting Pakistan’s war in Kashmir”!

Nilesh Kunwar is a retired Indian Army Officer who has served in Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. He is a keen ‘Kashmir-Watcher,’ and after retirement is pursuing his favourite hobby of writing for newspapers, journals and think-tanks. Views expressed above are the author's own