by Col Dr P K Vasudeva

Following a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, U.S. President Donald Trump on February 13 offered to mediate the border disputes between India and China, acknowledging the issue as "quite vicious". However, India has firmly rejected this offer, reiterating its long-standing policy of addressing such issues bilaterally.

During a press conference with PM Modi, President Trump expressed his willingness to mediate, stating that he would "love to help" resolve the border skirmishes, emphasising the need to stop the violence. He also suggested that China could play a role in ending the war in Ukraine and underscored the importance of cooperation among India, China, Russia, and the U.S.

Ties between India and China have been strained since the Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020. Despite this, both countries completed a disengagement process and agreed to withdraw troops from friction points in eastern Ladakh. PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping have also discussed reviving dialogue mechanisms. India has maintained that relations with China cannot return to normal until peace is restored in the border areas.

Donald Trump's involvement in the India-China border dispute through mediation is an interesting proposition, but there are several factors to consider. While Trump has previously offered to mediate between India and Pakistan on various occasions, the dynamics of the India-China border issue are more complex issues.

India and China have had a long-standing border dispute, primarily centred around the regions of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The two countries fought a war in 1962 over the issue, and tensions have remained high since then, with occasional skirmishes.

India has traditionally been wary of third-party mediation in the border dispute. New Delhi generally prefers bilateral discussions to resolve such issues without outside intervention. India has a long-standing policy of addressing border disputes directly with China, avoiding international involvement. Additionally, India views China's territorial claims with suspicion and would likely be cautious about any external influence.

China has also been firm in its approach, claiming large portions of the disputed territories and has historically rejected third-party mediation. Beijing prefers direct negotiations and might view external mediation as an unnecessary complicating factor.

During his tenure, Trump did offer to mediate between India and Pakistan on Kashmir, but that offer was not embraced by India, which reiterated its position that Kashmir is a bilateral issue with Pakistan. Trump's relationship with both India and China was largely centred on trade and strategic interests, but mediation in a highly sensitive matter like the border dispute would likely be challenging due to the entrenched positions of both countries.

Given the deeply rooted historical, territorial, and national security concerns tied to this dispute, any mediation by a foreign leader would face significant opposition. Both countries would likely prefer to manage the issue in their own terms rather than having external mediation. Moreover, the geopolitical implications of such involvement could complicate the situation further.

While Trump’s attempt at mediation might be seen as a diplomatic gesture, it's unlikely that his involvement would significantly impact the resolution of the India-China border dispute. The issue is deeply embedded in national interests and historical context, and both countries would likely prefer to resolve it through direct negotiation rather than third-party mediation.

President Trump's offer to mediate came in a public statement made during a press interaction with Prime Minister Modi in 2020, at a time when the conflict was at its peak. Trump claimed he could help resolve the tensions, a position he had previously taken in the context of other international disputes. However, India's stance has consistently been that border issues should be handled bilaterally, without third-party involvement.

China, too, has expressed its preference for direct discussions, making any mediation offer unlikely to be welcomed by either of the two countries. As of now, the situation remains largely unchanged, with India and China continuing their negotiations in an effort to manage the dispute while avoiding further conflict.

In the aftermath of the clash, both countries engaged in a series of military standoffs and negotiations. By late 2023, India and China had made progress in addressing some of these tensions. A disengagement pact was finalised for the withdrawal of troops from Depsang and Demchok, the last two friction points in eastern Ladakh. Following this agreement, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on October 23, 2024, to discuss reviving various dialogue mechanisms aimed at improving bilateral relations.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the overall relationship remains precarious. In 2025, as both nations mark the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic ties, they continue to grapple with deep-seated mistrust stemming from historical conflicts and ongoing border disputes. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains a contentious issue, with frequent skirmishes reported along this boundary. Additionally, India's trade deficit with China has grown to approximately $85 billion as of 2023-24, complicating economic interdependence amid strategic decoupling efforts.

Conclusively, this isn't the first time Trump has offered to mediate between India and China. He has made similar offers in the past, including during his first term, but India has consistently declined, emphasising its preference for bilateral discussions.

India and China have engaged in multiple rounds of bilateral discussions to address their border issues, which primarily stem from territorial disputes in regions like Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, and the LAC. Both nations have sought peaceful and diplomatic solutions to avoid escalation into conflict, although tensions have flared up occasionally, such as during the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the Doklam standoff in 2017, and the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. The talks have often been aimed at confidence-building measures, better communication, and resolving small-scale confrontations, but the larger border issue like Aksai-Chin and Arunachal Pradesh remain unresolved.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that "war is not the only solution to resolve border disputes" reflects a broader stance of diplomacy and peaceful negotiations in handling international tensions. He has often emphasised the importance of dialogue, collaboration, and mutual understanding, as opposed to military confrontation, in solving conflicts, including those concerning border issues.

The writer is an author, researcher and former Professor ‘International Trade’