Ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the U.S. in February 2025, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, noted that China is the primary driver behind the strategic partnership between India and the U.S. Kugelman anticipates that China will be a topic of discussion between Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump. He suggests Trump aims to intensify U.S. efforts to compete with China economically, making it a significant point of conversation for the two leaders.

Kugelman also highlighted the importance of discussing the Quad, as India is set to host the next Leaders' Summit. He expects Modi to invite Trump to attend the Quad Summit in India, which could be a key outcome of their meeting.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, stated that China is the primary factor driving the strategic partnership between India and the U.S. He believes that China will be a significant topic in discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump. Kugelman also noted that President Trump aims to intensify U.S. efforts to surpass China, especially in economic competition, suggesting this will be a key point of discussion between the two leaders.

Kugelman highlighted the importance of these discussions for the Quad, noting India's role in hosting the next Leaders' Summit and the expectation that Modi will invite Trump to participate. He also anticipates that Trump might press Modi to further reduce tariffs, even though India has already taken steps in that direction.

According to Kugelman, tariffs are expected to be a topic in the meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi. Despite India's efforts to reduce tariffs, Trump may still press Modi for further reductions. Kugelman believes that the Indian government has effectively minimized potential discomfort regarding sensitive issues. He notes India's public signals of willingness to reduce tariffs, repatriate undocumented Indians, and import more oil from the US, aligning with Trump's expectations for other countries.

Kugelman anticipates Trump may request additional tariff reductions from India, but he considers it unlikely that Trump will make direct demands of Modi or the Indian government. He emphasizes the positive state of the partnership, noting Trump's affinity for India and the India-US partnership, suggesting Trump will aim to maintain a positive tone during Modi's visit.

China's Objectives in South Asia China aims to check India's rise by exploiting the India-Pakistan rivalry, expand economic activity and influence, and enhance access to the Indian Ocean. China uses the BRI to achieve its strategic objectives in South Asia, with its warm relationship with Pakistan providing a unique advantage. China hopes to enlist Indian cooperation in other BRI components.

China's growing influence China has been emboldened to assert its interests in South Asia more directly because of profound changes in its relationships with states in the region. China's objective is to encourage policies that are favourable for itself and to pre-empt decisions that would go against its core interests.

China's approach to South Asian countries China has taken a nuanced approach in Bangladesh, expanding its manufacturing base to cater to diverse export markets. China has also increased social and cultural engagement with India, increasing the number of scholarships for Indian students and artists.

ANI