The recent diplomatic engagement between India and the Taliban has raised significant attention, particularly following a meeting between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on January 8, 2025. This encounter is notable as it marks the highest-level dialogue between India and the Taliban since the latter's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021.

The discussions in Dubai were part of India's ongoing efforts to foster ties with Afghanistan, focusing on various sectors including humanitarian aid, trade, and regional security. This meeting occurred shortly after India condemned Pakistan's airstrikes in Afghanistan, which resulted in civilian casualties.

Following the airstrikes by Pakistan on December 24, which reportedly killed at least 46 civilians, India expressed solidarity with the Taliban regime by condemning these actions. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) criticized Pakistan for its historical tendency to blame neighbouring countries for its internal issues.

The Taliban has indicated its desire to strengthen economic ties with India, emphasizing the importance of India's role as a regional economic player. Discussions included enhancing trade through Iran's Chabahar Port, which India is developing as an alternative route to bypass Pakistan's ports.

Indian Aid Never Stopped To Afghanistan

India has maintained a continuous commitment to providing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, even after the Taliban's takeover in August 2021. Recent high-level discussions between Indian officials and the Taliban have underscored this ongoing support.

Humanitarian Assistance: India has dispatched significant shipments of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, including:

50,000 metric tons of wheat
300 tons of medicines
27 tons of earthquake relief supplies
40,000 litres of pesticides
100 million doses of polio vaccine
1.5 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines
Additional supplies such as hygiene kits, winter clothing, and stationery

Geopolitical Context

India's engagement with the Taliban is seen as a strategic move amid changing regional dynamics. This engagement is perceived as a strategic move by India to enhance its influence in Afghanistan amidst rising tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban. The Taliban's support for the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which poses a threat to Pakistan, complicates the regional dynamics further.

Key factors influencing this shift include:

Pakistan's Deteriorating Influence: The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan has become increasingly strained, as the latter's attempts to exert control have been met with resistance from the Afghan leadership. The Taliban is now seeking to assert its independence and is less reliant on Pakistan than in previous years.

Regional Alliances: India aims to enhance its role in Afghanistan, especially as China strengthens ties with the Taliban. This engagement is partly driven by India's need to counterbalance Pakistan's influence and ensure its own security interests in the region.

Security Concerns For Pakistan

Pakistan perceives India's outreach to the Taliban as a direct threat for several reasons:

Support For TTP: The Taliban’s support for the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) complicates Islamabad's security landscape. The TTP, which has intensified its activities since the Taliban's resurgence, poses a growing challenge to Pakistan's stability.

Increased Terrorism: Reports indicate a significant rise in terrorist activities within Pakistan, coinciding with the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan. This rise in violence is linked to the TTP’s renewed vigour and its connections with the Afghan Taliban.

Border Disputes: The Taliban's reluctance to recognize the Durand Line (the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan) further exacerbates tensions. This issue could embolden separatist sentiments within Pakistan's tribal areas, potentially destabilizing the region further.

Pakistan’s Reaction

In light of these developments, Pakistan has adopted a defensive posture:

Accusations Against Neighbours: Islamabad has historically blamed external actors for its internal issues, a sentiment echoed in recent statements from Indian officials criticizing Pakistan’s approach.

Military Responses: The Pakistani military has ramped up operations against perceived threats, leading to increased casualties and unrest among local populations. This heavy-handed approach has sparked movements demanding greater autonomy and an end to military operations in tribal areas.

Conclusion

The evolving relationship between India and the Taliban represents a significant shift in regional geopolitics that poses challenges for Pakistan. As India seeks to stabilize its influence in Afghanistan while countering Pakistani dominance, Islamabad faces mounting pressures both from within and outside its borders. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional security and stability.

NDTV