Pakistan plans to acquire 40 J-35 stealth fighters from China, marking the first export of Beijing’s fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally. Meanwhile, considering the three front threats, most analysts believe that the Indian Air Force requires around 50 fighter squadrons

by Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd)

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has just announced the formation of a high-level committee to address shortages in the Indian Air Force (IAF). For some time, the IAF has been grappling with the shortages of fighter aircraft, with the squadron strength coming to an all-time low of 30 vis-à-vis the authorised strength of 42. The committee headed by the Defence Secretary will include senior ministry officials, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) chairman Samir V Kamat, and senior IAF officers.

It will look at the shortage of fighter jets, weapons, and other equipment and suggest solutions, including accelerating indigenous production and selectively inviting foreign collaborations, amid growing security challenges from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The report is expected in 2-3 months.

Meanwhile, Pakistan plans to acquire 40 J-35 stealth fighters from China, marking the first export of Beijing’s fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally. It could mean induction by around 2029. That will change the entire air dominance dynamics in the subcontinent. China’s potential sale of fighter jets to Bangladesh also adds to regional security concerns.

IAF Fighter Shortages

The IAF’s forthcoming fighter aircraft shortages had been anticipated as early as 2001. A case for 126 aircraft had been initiated. IAF would then have been very happy to acquire additional Mirage-2000 aircraft with upgraded standards, and these could have been made in India for the world. The French finally closed the Mirage-2000 line in 2006 and offered the Rafale. The final process of selecting the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) got going in 2008. The Rafale came out as a winner among the six contestants in 2012. But there were complexities of Make in India between Dassault and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Finally, only 36 were bought off-the-shelf in a government-to-government (G2G) deal. Since the Su-30MKI that began inducting in the early 2000s, 36 Rafales were the only foreign fighters inducted.

TEJAS MK-1 made its first flight in 2001. It was finally inducted into the IAF in 2015. 24 years after the first flight, the IAF has just two squadrons. The TEJAS MK-1A, which was to begin inducting in March 2024, is already delayed by a year. IAF was forced to extend the MiG-21 fleet till 2025. In fact, India is one of the last operators of the type.

The HAL TEJAS MK-2 Medium Weight Fighter (MWF), which will be closer to Rafale in capabilities, is planned to be rolled out by 2025 and have its first flight in 2026. The mass production is planned for 2029. Once again, these are very optimistic figures, considering more so that we are dependent on foreign subsystems.

India is also the only operator of Jaguar aircraft, which we may continue to fly for another 8-10 years. 30 squadrons is a precariously low figure for the threat assessment made by India’s security establishment.

Fifth Generation Fighters

The DRDO-HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) feasibility study was launched in October 2010. In 2015, the basic design configuration of AMCA was finalised and was accepted by IAF in 2016. The design work was completed in 2023, and approval for the ₹15,000 crore ($1.8 billion) project for prototype development was received in March 2024. The first flight is expected in late 2028. Mass production of the aircraft and induction are planned to start by 2035. From the TEJAS experience, the above timelines seem very optimistic, and delays should be expected and factored.

Way Ahead For Fighters

In 2001, India had a 3:1 advantage over Pakistan in fighter numbers. This is now close to 1.6:1. China has a 3:1 advantage over IAF in numbers. Considering the three front threats, most analysts believe that IAF requires around 50 fighter squadrons.

To make good the 42 squadrons first, some urgent steps are required. All 83 ordered TEJAS MK-1A  were to be delivered by 2029. For that to happen, nearly 24 aircraft must now be built every year. Currently we are still at best around 12 TEJAS a year. Even the proposed third line at Nasik will thus not be sufficient. Another 97 TEJAS MK-1A are being ordered. All the more, production must quickly go up to 24 aircraft a year. Supply chain issues for GE 404 engines must be resolved quickly. In fact, India must keep a buffer stock.

TEJAS MK-2 development must be hastened. Ideally, HAL must find a private partner at this stage itself who can support both basic design work and production. The same arrangement is envisaged with AMCA. The partner must be selected quickly.

Pakistan is working closely with Turkey on their TAI ‘Kaan’ fifth-generation fighter. They are also in talks with China to buy 40 J-35A fifth-generation fighters. It will be inappropriate for the country with the fourth largest military and soon to be the third largest economy if a financially impoverished Pakistan were to induct fifth-generation fighters earlier than India.

If India has to sit at the global high table, it must make world-class fighter aircraft as China has been doing for some time. A national task force must be created for fighter aircraft design and development. The task force must report directly to the PMO.

Lastly, and no less importantly, the proposal for a one-time buy of Make in India 114 fighters must be pushed. Even if ordered today, these will be inducted only after 5-6 years. To save time, it should be a G2G deal. Ideally it should be the latest Rafale F4 variant. India has already paid for IAF-specific modifications, and also airbase infrastructure exists. Rafales are already operational, and induction will be fastest. Also, the French are tried and tested partners. We cannot keep putting more eggs in the Russian and US basket. Even after all the above actions, the 42 squadrons will be completed only in 2038 or so.

Force Multipliers: A Critical Requirement

For a continental-sized country like India, 3 large (IL-76-based) and 3 small (DRDO Netra) airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems are highly inadequate. Even Pakistan has more AEW&C than India. India has decided to make six more Netra and also develop six larger ones (Netra 2) using pre-owned airliners. Similarly, India has only six flight refuelling aircraft. Six more are being developed indigenously using pre-owned airliners. These two activities will take around six years. Timelines have to be shortened. Also, further planning is required for yet another additional six of each of the two types.

UAS And Drones

Recent conflicts have highlighted the importance of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and smaller-sized drones. China is already among the leaders in UAS. Pakistan has not only acquired Chinese Wing Loong II UAS but is manufacturing them under license. Pakistan’s close Turkey connections open another UAS and drone supply line. India has understood the requirements.

The DRDO TAPAS-BH-201 medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) has been under development for long. India was forced to buy the General Atomics MQ-9B armed High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UCAVs, by paying nearly $3.5 billion for 31 of them. The deliveries will be undertaken from January 2029 till September 2030.

India has over 100 drone start-ups. Adani Group, in a joint venture with Israel’s Elbit, is making Hermes 450 and 900 UAS variants in India. India has the capabilities. These need to be harnessed. Many drone components are currently being imported. If orders and production are coordinated, the components can be made in India.

Missiles And Ammunition

Recent conflicts have highlighted the need for modern aerial weapons with precision and range. Even a larger power like Russia was denied air superiority because of modern air defence systems. China is already making world-class aerial missiles, with some having ranges up to 3,400 kilometres. India has done well with aerial missiles (Astra), AD systems (Akash), and air-to-surface missiles (BrahMos). The development of advanced variants has to be pushed.

The second aspect is weapons and kamikaze drone stocking and securing supply chains. It is important to become atmanirbhar on both of these. India must diversify sources in the interim period.

Aero-Engine

The aero-engine development remains another Achilles heel. India is in talks with Safran, Rolls-Royce, and some others to build an aero-engine with Indian intellectual property rights (IPR). This would be an important step, and India must bite the bullet earlier than later. Also, ToT negotiations for the GE-414 engine to be built in India must spell out technologies in great detail. It should not end up as any other license production contract.

Joint Ventures

India has had successful joint ventures (JVs) for radars and missiles with Israeli companies. BrahMos with Russia is a successful JV with greater potential ahead. AK-203 rifles are being made through an Indo-Russian JV. CASA-295W is being built through a JV with the Tata Group. The JV route is better than licensed production, as both partners have a stake in both risks and profits. The government had given approval to 45 companies/JVs operating in the defence sector with foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) just last year. These may be pushed.

Encourage The Private Sector

India’s private sector is now growing big in defence. Many large groups, like TATA, Adani, Mahindra, and Bharat Forge, among many others, are in defence. They are making world-class equipment for global customers, including aero-structures of top aircraft. DRDO and Defence PSUs must also create more JVs with the Indian private sector. There are many private companies in Drones. They need greater hand-holding.

Out-of-the-Box Ideas

As India pushes its Make in India projects with all earnestness, it may have to take some hard interim calls. India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is likely to take some time. India may wish to consider acquiring 2-3 squadrons of interim fifth-generation aircraft. The choice is either to join up with Russians on the Sukhoi Su-57 or impress upon the US to supply the F-35. Another thought is to acquire 12-15 bombers. Russia has reportedly offered the Tu-160M strategic bombers, which could substantially boost the IAF’s aerial capabilities.

India is currently sandwiched between the two ends of a vice. Decisions must flow quickly. It is hoped that the high-level MoD committee will come out with good solutions.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author