Negotiations between Pakistan and China regarding the provision of a Chinese Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) system have reached an impasse, largely influenced by ongoing disputes over the Gwadar port. Reports indicate that China has declined Pakistan's requests for the acquisition of a Chinese SSBN (Submarine Ship Ballistic Nuclear) amid concerns about security and the geopolitical implications of such an arrangement.

Background On Gwadar Port Dispute

Gwadar, strategically located on the Arabian Sea, is a focal point of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This port is intended to enhance trade routes and bolster China's access to the Indian Ocean. However, security challenges, particularly attacks on Chinese nationals and projects in Pakistan, have complicated China's investments and military collaborations in the region. The Pakistani military's aspirations for enhanced naval capabilities, including requests for advanced Chinese submarines, are seen as part of a broader strategy to secure maritime interests in light of these threats.

Implications of China's Refusal

China's refusal to provide Pakistan with Second Nuclear Strike capabilities reflects several key considerations:

Security Concerns: The ongoing instability in Balochistan and threats to Chinese personnel have made Beijing cautious about deepening military ties that could involve substantial commitments in a volatile environment.

Geopolitical Dynamics: The relationship between China and Pakistan is under strain due to external pressures, particularly from U.S. sanctions affecting Chinese defence suppliers. These sanctions complicate Pakistan's ability to procure advanced military equipment from China.

Strategic Calculations: While Gwadar serves as a potential strategic strongpoint for China, the lack of political commitment from both nations for mutual military support during crises has hindered deeper military integration. This situation has led to scepticism about establishing a significant Chinese military presence in Pakistan.

A second-strike capability is a highly prized form of military deterrent, as it allows a country to retaliate even if it suffers an attack that cripples other components of its nuclear triad. Possession of a second-strike capability is intended to deter hostile powers from attempting to win a war with a decisive nuclear first strike of their own, by guaranteeing that they would also face some form of nuclear retaliation regardless, whether from attacks carried out by nuclear-armed submarines or missiles stored in hardened silos.

China's refusal to meet Pakistan's demands for nuclear weapons amid the Gwadar port dispute signifies broader security and geopolitical challenges facing both nations as they navigate their complex relationship.