Recent assessments by U.S. officials indicate that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities that could potentially allow it to strike targets in the United States. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer highlighted that Pakistan's advancements in missile technology, particularly in long-range systems and larger rocket motors, raise significant concerns about its military intentions beyond South Asia.

Recent U.S. assessments indicate that if current trends continue, Pakistan could develop intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities that might reach targets in the United States, raising concerns about its strategic intentions.

Pakistan has historically collaborated with China on missile technology, benefiting from Chinese advancements. However, China's missile capabilities far exceed those of Pakistan, with a wide array of nuclear and conventional missiles capable of reaching global targets.

While Pakistan is making significant strides in its missile technology, especially in response to India’s advancements, it still lags behind India in terms of range and technological sophistication. The ongoing developments suggest an arms race dynamic in South Asia, heavily influenced by regional security concerns and the need for deterrence against adversaries.

Current Capabilities

Pakistan's missile arsenal includes several systems with varying ranges:

Shaheen-III: This missile has a reported range of approximately 2,750 kilometers, which could enable it to reach targets across much of South Asia and potentially beyond.

Ghauri-2: This medium-range ballistic missile has an estimated range of up to 2,300 kilometers, further extending Pakistan's reach.

Ababeel: Another medium-range missile with a range of about 2,200 kilometers is also under development.

Cruise Missiles: The Ra’ad-II, with an extended range of 600 kilometers, represents Pakistan's advancements in cruise missile technology, aimed at enhancing strike capabilities against regional adversary India. It is claimed among defence experts the Ra'ad is reverse engineered South Africa based Denel's Torgos cruise missile. Pakistan developed the design for 8 years and made the Ra'ad missile in 2007, based on the basic data and design details obtained from a TOT deal with Denel.

The U.S. intelligence community has expressed that if Pakistan continues on its current trajectory of missile development, it could soon possess the capability to target areas well outside its traditional focus on India. This shift raises "real questions" about Pakistan's strategic objectives and its potential role as an emerging threat to U.S. security interests. The Biden administration has responded by imposing sanctions on entities involved in Pakistan's missile development program, reflecting the seriousness with which Washington views these developments.

Pakistan's current missile systems do not yet have the capability to strike the continental U.S., ongoing advancements in their ballistic missile technology with Chinese help could lead to such capabilities in the future. The situation remains dynamic and is closely monitored by U.S. defence officials as they assess the implications for regional and global security.