The recent victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has sparked discussions about the potential direction of U.S.-India relations during his second term, often referred to as "Trump 2.0." This phase is expected to emphasize reciprocity in trade and strategic partnerships, reflecting both leaders' shared interests and previous experiences.

The Trump administration is anticipated to push for more reciprocal trade agreements, which may lead to renewed tensions over tariffs and trade balances. India currently enjoys a significant trade surplus with the U.S., which could become a focal point for Trump's protectionist policies aimed at reducing trade deficits.

Trump's commitment to "America First" suggests that India may face pressure to align its economic policies more closely with U.S. interests, potentially complicating initiatives like "Make in India" that emphasize domestic manufacturing.

There is optimism about reviving stalled negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which were previously side lined during Trump's first term.

The U.S. is likely to continue prioritizing Indo-Pacific security, viewing India as a crucial partner in countering China's influence in the region. This includes enhancing military cooperation and joint exercises under frameworks like the Quad, which includes the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia.

Both leaders share a strong stance against terrorism, particularly concerning threats from Pakistan. A collaborative approach to counterterrorism could be strengthened during Trump's second term.

The personal relationship between Trump and Modi is expected to facilitate smoother diplomatic interactions, despite potential friction over issues like immigration and human rights, which may receive less scrutiny under Trump compared to previous administrations.

Trump's foreign policy may adopt a more transactional nature, focusing on immediate benefits rather than long-term alliances, which could influence India's strategic decisions regarding its relationships with other countries, including Russia and China.

Trump's history of imposing tariffs could lead to increased economic friction between the two nations, particularly as India navigates its own protectionist policies.

While Trump may be less vocal about India's internal issues compared to the Biden administration, there remains a possibility of pressure from certain factions within Congress regarding human rights practices in India.

Trump 2.0 presents both opportunities and challenges for U.S.-India relations. While there is potential for deepening economic ties and strategic cooperation against common threats, the landscape will be shaped by Trump's unpredictable policy approaches and a renewed focus on reciprocity. As both nations seek to navigate these dynamics, their ability to manage tensions while capitalizing on shared interests will be crucial for future collaboration.