Satellite image shows the Nuclear Power Institute of China's Site No. 1, also know as Base 909

China is making significant strides towards developing its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, as evidenced by recent satellite imagery and analyses of government documents. Researchers from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies have confirmed the construction of a land-based prototype nuclear reactor intended for a large warship at a site near Leshan in Sichuan province. This development represents a pivotal moment in China's naval modernization efforts, which aim to enhance its capabilities for operations far from its shores, thereby challenging U.S. naval dominance.

The identified prototype reactor is part of what is referred to as the Longwei or Dragon Might Project. This reactor is designed to power a future aircraft carrier, marking China's entry into the exclusive club of nations capable of operating nuclear-powered carriers, currently occupied only by the United States and France.

Possessing nuclear-powered carriers would significantly elevate China's naval status and operational flexibility. These vessels can remain at sea longer without refuelling, allowing for extended missions and increased combat readiness, which is particularly crucial in strategically sensitive regions such as the First Island Chain, including Taiwan.

China currently operates three aircraft carriers, including the domestically built Type 003 Fujian. While it has announced plans for a fourth carrier, details regarding its propulsion system remain unconfirmed. Experts suggest that Chinese shipyards have the capacity to work on multiple carriers simultaneously, potentially including both conventional and nuclear-powered designs.

Research Findings

The findings were based on a comprehensive investigation that included:

Satellite Imagery: Used to confirm the construction activities at Base 909, where the reactor facility is located.

Public Documents: Included project tenders and environmental assessments that indicated the reactor's purpose for naval propulsion rather than weapons-grade material production.

Expert Analysis: Analysts noted that this advancement not only boosts national pride but also enhances China's global stature as a leading power.

Technological / Logistical / Strategic / Operational Challenges

China's third conventionally powered carrier, Fujian conducts maiden sea trail in May 2024

China's ambition to deploy nuclear-powered aircraft carriers presents several potential challenges that could impact its naval capabilities and operational effectiveness. These challenges span technological, logistical, and strategic dimensions.

China’s nuclear propulsion technology is currently less advanced than that of the United States. For instance, the U.S. Ford-class carriers can operate for decades without refuelling, while China's most advanced reactor, the Linglong One, requires refuelling every two to three years. This difference in technology could limit the operational readiness and endurance of Chinese nuclear carriers.

Developing a nuclear-powered carrier entails stringent safety protocols and reliable reactor designs. Any mishaps could lead to severe consequences, both domestically and internationally, potentially undermining public confidence and international relations.

To effectively operate nuclear-powered carriers, China must establish a robust logistical network, including hardened naval facilities and specialized maintenance capabilities. Currently, China's overseas basing options are limited, with only a couple of bases that lack sufficient capacity for extensive operations. This could hinder the ability to sustain long-term deployments far from home waters.

While China has some at-sea replenishment vessels, they are not sufficient to support extensive global operations. Reliance on at-sea replenishment poses vulnerabilities in wartime scenarios where such operations could be targeted by adversaries.

The deployment of nuclear-powered carriers may escalate tensions in already volatile regions such as the South China Sea and around Taiwan. This could provoke military responses from neighbouring countries or the United States, complicating China's strategic calculus.

Despite having a large navy, China’s ability to project power globally remains constrained by geographical chokepoints and the need for support from land-based facilities. In wartime scenarios, these chokepoints could limit operational freedom for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and expose them to blockades or other forms of military pressure.

The rapid expansion of China's naval capabilities may outpace its ability to train sufficient numbers of qualified personnel. A shortage of skilled sailors and aircrew could impede the effective operation of new nuclear-powered carriers.

However, the establishment of a nuclear propulsion system for aircraft carriers represents a crucial step in China's ambition to expand its maritime capabilities and assert its influence on the global stage. As China's naval modernization continues, it poses an increasing challenge to existing naval powers, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.