Recent intelligence reports indicate a significant increase in social media activity by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations, specifically targeting youth in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). This surge, described as a "social media overdrive," aims to glamorize terrorism and promote secessionist sentiments, posing a renewed threat to local stability.

Over the past month, there has been a 22-fold increase in concerning posts from identified terror-linked accounts on platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and Telegram. Intelligence agencies recorded more than 2,000 objectionable posts, compared to just 89 during the same period last year. These include over 130 posts specifically glorifying terrorism and more than 310 threats aimed at public infrastructure and schools.

Despite the uptick in online propaganda, actual local recruitment into terrorist groups has sharply declined. Only four locals have joined terrorist outfits in J&K this year, down from 22 in 2023 and 113 in 2022. Currently, there are about 30 local terrorists active in the region compared to 75-80 foreign militants.

The current strategy appears focused on exploiting the vulnerabilities of J&K's youth, reminiscent of earlier tactics that elevated figures like Burhan Wani to terror icons. The Indian security establishment views this renewed social media campaign as an effort to counteract the decline in local recruitment and to prepare for potential escalations in violence during the summer of 2025.

The rise in social media activity coincides with recent political developments in J&K, including the establishment of an elected government. This shift may have emboldened Pakistan-based terrorists to intensify their efforts to incite unrest. Intelligence sources have warned of plans by Pakistan's ISI to target local political leaders associated with the Jamaat-e-Islami as part of a broader strategy to destabilize the region.

The evolving tactics of these terrorist groups include utilizing sophisticated social media campaigns and hybrid terrorism strategies, where individuals with no prior affiliations carry out attacks and then return to civilian life. This complicates identification and apprehension efforts by security forces.

The situation in Jammu and Kashmir remains precarious as Pakistan-backed terror outfits ramp up their online influence while facing challenges in local recruitment. The Indian security apparatus is closely monitoring these developments, recognizing the potential for increased violence linked to both social media campaigns and changing political dynamics within the region.