The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to strengthen defence ties between India and the United States. This anticipated development is rooted in the established rapport between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which was characterized by mutual respect and shared strategic interests during Trump's first term.

During Trump's initial presidency, India-US defence relations saw significant advancements, including the signing of key agreements such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). These agreements enhanced intelligence sharing and logistics support, laying a solid foundation for military collaboration. With Trump back in office, experts expect a continuation and possibly an acceleration of these initiatives, particularly in light of shared concerns over China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

Trump's "America First" policy may lead to a more transactional approach in defence dealings, potentially making future arms sales contingent upon India's commitments. This could result in increased pressure on India to diversify its military procurement away from traditional suppliers like Russia, as the US seeks to capture a larger share of India's defense spending, projected to be around $200 billion over the next decade. Analysts predict that under Trump's leadership, India might engage in more substantial purchases of US military hardware, including advanced technologies and systems like drones and fighter jets.

The personal chemistry between Modi and Trump is seen as a stabilizing factor for bilateral relations. Following Trump's recent electoral victory, Modi was one of the first leaders to congratulate him, underscoring their close ties. This relationship could facilitate smoother diplomatic interactions and foster collaborative efforts on global issues such as counterterrorism, where both leaders have expressed mutual interests.

Both nations share concerns regarding terrorism, particularly in relation to Pakistan. Trump's previous administration took a hard stance against Pakistan's support for terrorist organizations, a position that aligns with Modi's security priorities. The expectation is that this alignment will continue, leading to coordinated efforts to address regional security challenges.

Indo-Pacific Strategy

Trump's administration is likely to place significant emphasis on strengthening the Quad alliance (comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia), which aims to counterbalance China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. This strategic focus could enhance India's role as a key player in maintaining regional stability.

Navigating Global Tensions

While there are opportunities for enhanced cooperation under Trump, there are also challenges. His approach may lead to increased expectations for India to align closely with US policies, particularly concerning its relations with Russia amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia.

Trump's return to power is poised to deepen India-US defence ties through strengthened military cooperation, shared strategic interests against common threats like China and terrorism, and enhanced economic collaboration. However, this relationship will require careful navigation of global geopolitical dynamics and domestic pressures within both nations.