Development of MIRV technology is a significant milestone for India's deterrence posture

India is set to continue its missile testing program in the future as part of a broader strategy to enhance its defence capabilities and strengthen its military arsenal. Recent developments indicate that the country is focusing on various missile technologies, including hypersonic and multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV), to bolster its deterrence posture against regional threats, particularly from China and Pakistan.

India has recently made significant strides in hypersonic missile technology, successfully testing a domestically developed long-range hypersonic missile. This test, conducted on November 17, 2024, marked India's entry into an elite group of nations capable of developing such advanced capabilities, alongside the U.S., China, and Russia. The missile is designed to carry payloads over distances exceeding 1,500 km and features terminal manoeuvres that enhance its precision and effectiveness in striking distant targets.

In addition to the hypersonic missile, India is also mass-producing Pralay missiles, which have a range of 150 to 500 kilometers. These missiles are expected to be operational soon. The ongoing development includes plans for naval variants capable of targeting enemy ships, further bolstering India's maritime defence capabilities.

On March 11, 2024, India successfully tested its first MIRV missile using the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile. This capability allows a single missile to carry multiple nuclear warheads, significantly enhancing India's strategic deterrence by enabling it to evade enemy missile defence systems. The test was part of a broader initiative to modernize India's nuclear arsenal and improve its second-strike capabilities.

MIRV technology allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads (typically between 3 to 6) that can be directed at different targets simultaneously. This capability significantly increases the destructive potential of each launch, enabling India to strike multiple strategic targets with fewer missiles.

By enabling multiple warheads on a single missile, MIRV technology reduces the overall cost per target destroyed. This economic rationale supports the modernization of India's nuclear arsenal without necessitating a proportional increase in missile numbers.

MIRVs are designed to penetrate advanced missile defence systems, making it harder for adversaries to intercept incoming warheads. This capability enhances India's second-strike capability, ensuring that even if an adversary launches a first strike, India can retaliate effectively. The integration of MIRV technology into India's missile systems enhances its nuclear deterrence strategy, particularly in the context of regional threats from China and Pakistan. It allows India to maintain a credible minimum deterrence posture while adapting to evolving security dynamics.

India's Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has outlined plans for several upcoming missile tests aimed at further strengthening the country's military capabilities. These include:

The Indian Army is working on developing shoulder-fired air defence missile systems to counter threats from drones and aircraft along its borders with China and Pakistan. This initiative includes the production of 350 launchers and approximately 2,000 missiles.

The modernisation of India's artillery includes the introduction of new gun systems and hypersonic missiles. The Indian Army is currently inducting various advanced artillery systems, which will significantly enhance its firepower.

The DRDO has indicated that multiple missile tests are planned for the near future as part of ongoing efforts to enhance both offensive and defensive capabilities. This includes long-range strategic missiles that are crucial for maintaining deterrence in a rapidly evolving security landscape.

The continuation of missile tests reflects India's commitment to self-reliance in defence technology and its goal to establish a robust military presence in the region. As tensions with neighbouring countries persist, particularly regarding territorial disputes and military posturing, these advancements are seen as vital for ensuring national security.

India's future missile testing initiatives are integral to its strategy of strengthening defence capabilities against regional threats while asserting itself as a key player in global military technology advancements.


Impact On Regional Dynamics

There will be a marked shift in deterrence dynamics for India. The introduction of advanced missile systems could lead India to adopt a more aggressive nuclear posture, potentially moving away from its traditional "No First Use" policy. This shift may encourage Pakistan to reconsider its own nuclear strategy, possibly leading to a lower threshold for nuclear engagement and increasing the risk of miscalculation during crises.

With improved missile precision and the potential for pre-emptive strike capabilities, the strategic stability of South Asia is at risk. The fear of a "use them or lose them" scenario could compel both nations to maintain higher readiness levels, which may inadvertently increase the chances of conflict escalation during periods of heightened tension.

India's integration of artificial intelligence and advanced surveillance technologies enhances its situational awareness and targeting precision will establish technological superiority and surveillance capabilities. This technological edge may embolden India to pursue counterforce strategies against Pakistan’s military assets, complicating crisis management and potentially destabilizing existing deterrence frameworks.

As India strengthens its missile capabilities, it may also seek to position itself as a net security provider in the regional security architecture. This could lead to new security arrangements with other nations, further complicating the strategic landscape and potentially isolating Pakistan. 

The advancements in India's missile technology are likely to draw scrutiny from global powers concerned about stability in South Asia. Countries like the United States may push for restraint in missile development programs to prevent further escalation and promote non-proliferation efforts in the region.