The potential for expedited India-US defence deals under Donald Trump's second presidency is shaped by several strategic factors that align with both nations' interests. Donald Trump's presidency was characterized by a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding military relations with India and the approach to Pakistan. 

Here’s how Trump's return could impact these delayed agreements:

The increasing assertiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific region has heightened security concerns for both India and the US. Trump's administration is likely to prioritize defence partnerships that address these mutual threats, which could lead to accelerated military cooperation and arms sales.

Historically, the Trump administration has been inclined to strengthen military ties with India. This focus is expected to continue, potentially leading to expedited resolutions of pending contracts, such as those involving fighter jets and advanced military hardware. For instance, the Indian Air Force's ongoing negotiations for new fighter jets could see renewed urgency under Trump.

India has expressed a strong desire for greater technology transfer from the US as part of its defence procurement strategy. The Trump administration may respond favourably to these demands, especially if it aligns with American interests in countering China's influence. This could facilitate not only faster approvals for arms sales but also collaborative projects in defence technology.

Strategic Purchases

India has taken a significant step towards enhancing its military capabilities by signing a $3.5 billion agreement with the United States for the procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones. This deal, finalized on October 15, 2024, involves 15 Sea Guardian drones for the Indian Navy and eight Sky Guardian drones each for the Indian Army and Air Force, aiming to bolster India's surveillance and strike capabilities across various operational theatres, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region and along its borders with China.

Negotiations between GE Aerospace and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are currently underway to establish a joint production initiative for the GE F-414 jet engines in India. This collaboration is intended for use in the Tejas Mark 2 fighter jets and represents a significant step in enhancing US-India defence cooperation. 

The Trump presidency might also help resolve logistical delays that have plagued existing contracts. For example, issues related to the delivery of engines for India's TEJAS MK-1A fighter jets could be prioritized. With Trump assuming office as the President of the United States, the supply constraints of GE F414 jet engines India is facing right now may be expedited ensuring smoother supply chains for critical components.

Since the year 2000, U.S. arms exports to India have significantly expanded, encompassing a range of advanced military assets. This includes:

Air Assets:

28 Apache AH-64E attack helicopters
1,354 AGM-114 Hellfire anti-tank missiles
245 Stinger portable surface-to-air missiles
15 CH-47 Chinook heavy-lift helicopters
13 C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft
11 C-17 Globemaster III heavy transport aircraft

Naval Assets:

1 Austin-class amphibious transport dock (INS Jalashwa)
24 MH-60R Seahawk naval helicopters
12 P-8I Poseidon aircraft for maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare
Various anti-submarine torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles
24 naval gas turbines for ship propulsion systems

These transactions have been facilitated through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS), with India emerging as a key partner for the U.S. in defence cooperation123. The total value of U.S. defence articles contracted by India since 2008 is reported to be nearly $20 billion.

The framework for co-design, co-development, and co-production established under previous administrations could gain momentum. Trump's administration may push for deeper collaboration in defence manufacturing, which would benefit both countries economically and strategically.

The Trump administration is expected to streamline processes for high-value defence exports, which may include drones, missile systems, and naval technologies. This approach could significantly reduce the time taken to finalize deals that have been stalled or delayed due to bureaucratic hurdles.

With ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and Ukraine, Trump's presidency could lead to a reordering of global supply chains that benefits India. A more stable geopolitical landscape might ease some supply constraints currently affecting India's defence sector.

As India looks to modernize its armed forces with an estimated $200 billion budget over the next decade, the US aims to capture a larger share of this market by encouraging India to reduce its reliance on Russian military supplies. This economic imperative aligns with both nations' strategic interests and could lead to more aggressive marketing of US defence products in India.

Pakistan-China-Russia Factors

Donald Trump's presidency was characterized by a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding military relations with India and the approach to Pakistan. 

During his administration, Trump actively sought to bolster military ties with India, viewing the country as a key strategic partner in countering regional adversaries. This included increased defence cooperation and arms sales, which were part of a broader strategy to enhance India's military capabilities in the face of threats from China and Pakistan.

In a notable move, Trump suspended $300 million in military aid to Pakistan, citing Islamabad's insufficient efforts to combat terrorism and its alleged support for militant groups that threaten U.S. interests in Afghanistan. This decision was part of a larger suspension of approximately $1.3 billion in aid, reflecting Trump's frustration with Pakistan's perceived "double game" of cooperating with the U.S. while harbouring terrorists. Trump's aggressive stance was underscored by his public statements, where he accused Pakistan of providing "nothing but lies and deceit" in return for U.S. aid.

Despite strengthening ties with India, Trump's administration faced challenges regarding India's procurement of the Russian S-400 air defence system. The purchase raised concerns about potential sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which aims to deter countries from engaging in defence relationships with Russia. Although there were threats of sanctions, they were not ultimately enforced, indicating a complex balancing act between maintaining strong ties with India while adhering to U.S. legislative frameworks.

Concluding Thoughts

Trump's second term is poised to expedite delayed India-US defence deals through enhanced military cooperation driven by shared strategic interests, a focus on technology transfer, resolution of logistical challenges, and a favourable geopolitical context. The relationship between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump is expected to further bolster these initiatives, creating a conducive environment for deeper defence ties between the two nations.