India's recent successful test of a hypersonic missile marks a significant advancement in its military capabilities, positioning it as a formidable player in the regional arms race, particularly against China and Pakistan.

On November 16, 2024, India conducted its first test of a long-range hypersonic missile from Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha. This missile reportedly achieved speeds exceeding Mach 6 (over five times the speed of sound) and demonstrated advanced manoeuvrability during its flight. The missile is designed to carry various payloads over distances greater than 1,500 kilometers, which enhances India's strike capabilities significantly.

Deterrence Against China And Pakistan

The successful test positions India within an elite group of nations capable of developing hypersonic technology, alongside Russia and China. This capability is crucial for enhancing India's deterrence against its primary adversaries, particularly China, which has been rapidly advancing its own military technologies. The hypersonic missile's ability to evade traditional missile defence systems makes it a critical asset for India.

The hypersonic missile, capable of flying at speeds exceeding Mach 6 and reaching distances over 1,500 kilometers, provides India with a powerful tool for deterrence. Its ability to evade traditional missile defence systems makes it particularly effective against adversaries like China and Pakistan. This capability allows India to maintain a credible second-strike option, which is crucial in a nuclearized environment.

China's military modernization efforts include operational hypersonic missiles like the DF-ZF glide vehicle integrated with the DF-17 missile. These developments have raised concerns in New Delhi about maintaining strategic parity in the region. India's new missile could serve as a countermeasure to China's growing naval capabilities, potentially threatening Chinese surface vessels operating in the Indian Ocean.

Flexibility In Military Operations

The missile's design allows for various payloads, including conventional and nuclear warheads. This dual-use capability enhances India's strategic flexibility, enabling it to respond effectively to different types of threats. The hypersonic missile can be employed in pre-emptive strikes against critical military assets of adversaries, aligning with India's Cold Start Doctrine aimed at countering Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons.

Pakistan's Response

Pakistan may respond by seeking to acquire similar hypersonic technologies from China, as it aims to maintain military relevance against India's advancements. The potential introduction of hypersonic systems into Pakistan's arsenal could alter the security dynamics in South Asia, especially given Pakistan's reliance on Chinese military technology.

Response To Regional Threats

India's advancement in hypersonic technology is a direct response to China's military modernization efforts, which include the development of similar hypersonic systems. The successful test positions India as a key player in the regional arms race, compelling both China and Pakistan to reassess their military strategies. Analysts suggest that Pakistan may seek to enhance its own capabilities by acquiring hypersonic technology from China, further escalating the arms race in South Asia.

Implications For Military Doctrine: Cold Start Doctrine Alignment

The introduction of hypersonic missiles complements India's Cold Start Doctrine by providing means for rapid military responses without escalating to full-scale war. This doctrine emphasizes quick, limited military operations against Pakistan to deter aggression while avoiding nuclear escalation. The ability to strike swiftly and accurately with hypersonic missiles enhances this strategy by targeting mobile launchers and command centres effectively.

Global Arms Race Context

India's hypersonic missile test is part of a broader global trend where nations are racing to develop advanced military technologies. The U.S., Russia, and China have been at the forefront of this arms race since the early 2000s, primarily driven by concerns over missile defence capabilities and nuclear deterrence strategies. India's entry into this arena underscores its commitment to modernizing its defence capabilities amid evolving geopolitical challenges.

India's successful hypersonic missile test not only enhances its military capabilities but also serves as a strategic signal to both China and Pakistan regarding its growing technological prowess. This development is likely to influence regional security dynamics and could prompt further military advancements among neighbouring countries as they seek to counterbalance India's enhanced deterrent capabilities.