A Semblance of Peace & Normalcy In Kashmir Unsettles The Pakistani Deep State; Triggers Terror Escalation
The abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, marked a significant shift in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), with various observable benefits emerging in the region since then. Here are the key developments and impacts following this historic decision:
Since the revocation, there has been a notable decrease in violence and terrorist activities. Official reports indicate that not a single civilian was killed during protests in the four years following the abrogation, contrasting sharply with the previous three decades when such incidents were common. The number of active militants has also significantly dropped, contributing to a more stable environment.
Public life in the Valley has largely returned to normal, with social and economic activities resuming without the disruptions that characterized earlier years. Events promoting peace and nation-building have taken place in areas previously known for unrest.
The region has seen a surge in investment proposals amounting to over ₹81,000 crore since the abrogation, compared to only ₹14,000 crore received since India’s independence prior to this change. This influx is expected to stimulate job creation and infrastructure development.
J&K has become one of India's top tourist destinations post-abrogation, with an increase in both domestic and international visitors. This boost in tourism is anticipated to further enhance local economies.
With the abrogation of Article 370, residents of J&K now enjoy the same fundamental rights as other Indian citizens. This includes access to various government programs aimed at education, employment, and social welfare that were previously unavailable due to the special status.
The changes have been viewed as an opportunity for marginalized communities within J&K to gain representation and access resources that were historically limited to a select few. Political leaders from regions like Ladakh have expressed optimism about self-determination and development following these changes.
The traditional political narratives of local parties such as the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have weakened as they grapple with a loss of relevance post-abrogation. Their previous focus on autonomy has shifted amid changing public sentiments favouring integration with broader national policies.
The decision has garnered support from several political parties across India, indicating a broader acceptance of the changes initiated by the central government. However, it remains contested by some local factions who continue to advocate for greater autonomy.
Impact On The Pakistani Deep State
Since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status, there has been a notable shift in the dynamics of conflict and governance in the region. The Indian government has focused on integrating Jammu and Kashmir more closely with the rest of India, which has resulted in a reduction of certain violent incidents but an increase in ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan. Reports indicate that while incidents of infiltration and stone-pelting have decreased, cross-border firings have escalated, raising tensions between India and Pakistan.
The Pakistani deep state, which includes military and intelligence agencies, perceives this evolving situation as a threat to its influence in Kashmir. The reduction in violence and a semblance of normalcy could undermine Pakistan's narrative of supporting Kashmiri self-determination, as it has historically backed terror groups operating in the region. This shift poses challenges for Pakistan's strategic interests, as it seeks to maintain its position as a key player in Kashmir while facing increasing pressure from India.
The recent surge in terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir has been attributed to the actions of Pakistan's "deep state," which consists of military, intelligence, and political elements that manipulate state and non-state actors against India. This escalation follows a period of optimism regarding the normalization of relations between India and Pakistan, particularly after the successful completion of Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which marked a significant political milestone in the region.
The deep state's strategy involves using proxy warfare to maintain plausible deniability while pursuing its objectives. This includes destabilizing India and keeping the Kashmir issue alive on the international stage. Analysts suggest that as normalcy returns to Kashmir, the relevance of separatist ideologies diminishes, prompting Pakistan's deep state to renew violence to assert its influence and distract from internal issues within Pakistan.
Recent attacks have targeted non-local labourers and security forces, reflecting a tactical shift from larger-scale operations to more localized violence aimed at soft targets. The Pakistani military's dominance over national security policy allows it to suppress domestic dissent by redirecting public attention towards external threats, particularly from India. By sending militants into India, Pakistan's security agencies aim to control these networks and prevent them from turning against the Pakistani establishment itself.
In Kashmir, local sentiments reflect a desire for peace and normalcy despite ongoing challenges. Residents express concerns about connectivity issues and a need for tangible improvements in their daily lives following the political changes. The Indian Army has shifted its approach by promoting surrenders among militants and engaging with local communities to foster trust and reduce recruitment into militant ranks. This strategy aims to create an environment where fewer individuals feel compelled to take up arms against the state.
The current state of affairs in Kashmir represents a delicate balance between maintaining peace and addressing underlying grievances. The Pakistani deep state's unease stems from its diminishing leverage over Kashmir amidst these changes. As both India and Pakistan navigate this complex landscape, the future of peace in Kashmir remains uncertain, contingent upon sustained dialogue and efforts to address the root causes of conflict.
With the abrogation of Article 370 there are clear indicators of improved security, economic opportunities, and social integration in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019. These developments suggest a potential for long-term stability and growth in the region.
The persistent interference by Pakistan's deep state complicates any potential for meaningful dialogue between India and Pakistan. While there are factions within Pakistan that favour peace talks, ongoing terrorist activities undermine these efforts. Indian officials remain sceptical about engaging with a government that cannot effectively rein in its military and intelligence apparatus.
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