New Delhi: Justin Trudeau’s unprecedented aggression towards India comes at an interesting time. As much as he claims non-cooperation from the Indian government and the involvement of “agents” in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the events coincide with the upcoming elections before which the Canadian prime minister is witnessing a decline in his popularity ratings.

Tensions between India and Canada escalated again after the Justin Trudeau administration expelled six Indian diplomats, claiming they were involved in a targeted campaign against Canadian citizens. The actions stems from the Canadian prime minister's claim that Indian government agents were involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, designated a terrorist by New Delhi.

The ratings before elections also come with the growing dissent against his government from Canadians over his economic policies which is widely believed to be the reason for Trudeau to influence the politically-strong Sikh community in the country.

Trudeau’s Declining Ratings Before Elections

Amid growing concerns over the rising cost of living, a struggling healthcare system, and increasing crime rates, an Ipsos poll revealed that only 26% of Canadians view Justin Trudeau as the best candidate for Prime Minister, placing him 19 points behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

This decline follows two electoral defeats for the ruling Liberal Party. Last month, they lost a historically secure seat in Montreal, just three months after losing a special election in Toronto, a seat they had held for 30 years. To compound matters, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party, which had been supporting the minority Liberal government, withdrew its backing just before the Montreal defeat. Singh has been a vocal supporter of Khalistan.

Trudeau now faces internal pressure from party colleagues urging him to step down, with some experts predicting the Liberals could face the same fate as the Conservatives in the UK. Despite these challenges, Trudeau remains in office after surviving two no-confidence votes in Parliament.

Sikhs In Canada And Trudeau’s Separatist Vote Bank

Canada’s more than 7.7 lakh Sikh population is the country’s fourth-largest ethnic community, with a faction supporting the Khalistan movement.

India has always taken objection to Justin Trudeau’s approach to pro-Khalistan separatists. During his first official visit to India in 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Trudeau only on the sixth day, amid controversy over a dinner invitation from the Canadian high commission to businessman Jaspal Atwal. Atwal had been convicted, though later acquitted, for his involvement in a 1986 assassination plot against a Punjab minister on Vancouver Island. The invitation was eventually withdrawn as Trudeau tried to distance himself from the controversy.

However, Trudeau’s stance on the issue remained unchanged, as his government refused to crack down on protests outside Indian consulates, where some pro-Khalistan demonstrators were seen burning the Indian flag.

Indira Gandhi’s Assassination Float Row

Earlier this year, On the 40th anniversary of Operation Bluestar, processions in Ontario and Toronto showed floats depicting the 1984 assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her bodyguards. The Canadian government declined to intervene in a Khalistan referendum supported by Sikhs for Justice.

Hardeep Singh Nijjar Assassination

Relations between India and Canada hit a new low after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused “Indian agents” of being involved in the June 2023 killing of terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Trudeau made these accusations shortly after returning from the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September. India strongly denied the allegations and requested concrete evidence, which Canada has yet to provide.

In response, both nations paused negotiations on a trade agreement, and India temporarily suspended visa processing, citing concerns for the safety of its diplomatic staff in Canada. Following this, over 40 Canadian diplomats were withdrawn from India after New Delhi invoked the principle of staffing reciprocity.

Canada also sought to include India in a broader investigation into alleged election interference. During a meeting with Trudeau on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, PM Modi voiced concerns about anti-India activities by extremists in Canada.

This is not the first time that separatist movements have strained India-Canada relations. Former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin Trudeau’s father, faced similar accusations of mishandling ties with New Delhi when Canadian authorities failed to take action against Khalistani extremists in the 1980s.

One notable incident involved Canada’s refusal to extradite Talwinder Singh Parmar, a member of terror outfit Babbar Khalsa, at India’s request. Parmar had fled to Canada after being accused of killing two police officers in Punjab. He was later implicated as a mastermind in the 1985 Kanishka bombing and was killed in Punjab seven years later.

(With Inputs From Agencies)