With delays in fighter jet production, only 31 active squadrons leave India ill-prepared to fight a two-front war, analysts say

India's air force strength has dropped to a historic low, raising alarms over the country's preparedness for potential conflicts with both Pakistan and China, as delays in fighter jet production continue to undermine efforts to replenish the ageing fleet.

The Indian Air Force now operates just 31 squadrons - far below the sanctioned strength of 42 and the lowest count since war with Pakistan nearly six decades ago.

Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh recently made headlines by vowing to fight on with "whatever we have", but his stoic resolve comes amid escalating concerns about production setbacks facing the domestically produced TEJAS light combat aircraft.

These delays have forced the retirement of dozens of ageing Soviet-era planes without adequate replacements.

Acquiring and inducting new aircraft is a time-consuming process, Singh said earlier this month, citing not just procurement but also pilot training and operational support. He warned in separate remarks that maintaining squadron strength above 30 was crucial and suggested that private firms should work with state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to expedite production of the new planes.

Defence experts echoed Singh's concerns, highlighting the strategic vulnerability posed by India's current fleet size - especially in a simultaneous two-front war with both Pakistan and China.

"The two countries pose a collusive threat," said Ashok Mehta, an independent defence analyst, arguing that India's squadron strength is inadequate for engaging both adversaries simultaneously. "With 31 squadrons, what we have is a defensive deterrence ... not an active deterrence to deter the Chinese."

In March, New Delhi approved an ambitious project to develop India's own fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft - an initiative that aims to position the country among a select group of nations, including the US and China.

Currently, India maintains an edge over neighbour and rival Pakistan with a fleet of 36 French-made Rafale fighter aircraft. However, this advantage could be eroded if Pakistan successfully acquires Chinese-made stealth fighters, such as the J-31, which is designed to compete with the US-made F-35. Islamabad hinted earlier this year that such a purchase was in the works.

China already boasts about 250 J-20 stealth fighter planes, according to reports, with expectations it will increase that number significantly by the time India's first fifth-generation prototype is slated to fly in 2027-28.

Despite a decade of efforts to bolster its defence-industrial base through the Make in India initiative and other programmes, the South Asian nation remains the world's largest arms importer, accounting for 9.8 per cent of total global arms imports from 2019 to 2023, according to The Economic Times.

Still, the policy has boosted India's defence exports and reduced its reliance on imports - yet it has also been blamed for causing delays in the supply of advanced weaponry.

"The emphasis on Make in India is something which is debatable," Mehta said, adding that "it will take another two decades" to fully materialise, but "private industry has now come into defence production and that means it is also into aviation".

The government had realised that relying on domestic production alone would be insufficient for maintaining deterrence, said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow specialising in security and international relations at the Observer Research Foundation think tank.

Collaborations with US-based companies such as GE Aerospace, or French aerospace and defence firm Safran, for design and technology are now being considered for the fifth-generation fighter programme, he told This Week in Asia.

The Indian Air Force is set to take delivery of 16 TEJAS MK-1A aircraft by March 2025 to replace its ageing Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 fighters.

The new aircraft will help bolster the air force's depleting strength, especially as two squadrons of ageing MiG-21 fighters are slated for retirement in 2025, followed by two squadrons of British-made Jaguar aircraft, which will be phased out by 2030.

In April, the defence ministry issued a tender for 97 more TEJAS MK-1As, and HAL recently signed an agreement with GE to produce 99 higher-powered F414 engines for the upgraded TEJAS MK-2.

Yet HAL has faced significant delays in delivering GE's F-404 engines for the TEJAS MK-1A, which the company has attributed to supply-chain bottlenecks in the aerospace industry.

Conflict Complacency

Analysts and industry insiders are calling for India to accelerate its efforts in developing advanced weapons technology.

As the country shifts away from its traditional reliance on Russian military equipment, the focus is now on technology transfers from Western partners, with an eye on managing costs and mitigating supply chain risks.

To this end, India's Tata Group has partnered with US firms such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing to produce technical airlifts for the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft and fuselages for Apache attack helicopters.

However, Salil Gupte, president of Boeing India, said that such US-India collaboration must extend to larger projects.

"The days of asset light approach are from 10 years ago," he told a US-India Strategic Partnership Forum session last week. "You have to be fully invested ... in the long-term operational readiness. We are talking about the ability to develop an ecosystem of suppliers."

Analysts agree that strengthening strategic cooperation between the US and India is crucial for achieving a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific region that both seek to promote.

But delays in aircraft induction reflect a complacent attitude among some in Indian defence circles towards the potential for hostilities with China, Mehta said.

"We have the world's third-largest military and fifth-largest economy, and yet we are investing less than 2 per cent of GDP in defence," he said.

"With that kind of investment, we will be stuck at 31 squadrons for a long time to come unless we take steps to catch up."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading Chinese news media reporting on China and Asia