India’s domestic capability is still ‘below the median’ and will need to develop longer-range submarines to catch up with China, analysts say

India’s fleet expansion of nuclear-powered submarines will significantly boost its security interests in the Indian Ocean as it jostles for influence with China, but a yawning technological gap still exists between New Delhi and Beijing, observers say.

The South Asian nation last month added its second nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine and is expected to deploy one more next year, but it is still seen as being on the shorter end of the power imbalance in the region.

The nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arighat – which means “destroyer of enemies” in Sanskrit – is believed to have a similar configuration to its predecessor INS Arihant, though authorities are tight-lipped on details of its weapons platform.

Both underwater vessels are armed with K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles which are thought to have a range of about 750km. In comparison, Chinese submarines have a range of at least 8,000km to 10,000km, analysts say.

“As a kind of deterrent signal to China … Indian subs [when fully operational] will be on extended prowl in the Indian Ocean Region and elsewhere if required,” said C Uday Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies and a retired commodore.

“But these numbers will not provide adequate ‘sufficiency’. More underwater platforms of this type will be required. And whether they will be acquired [ …] will depend on what India decides to prioritise by way of its trans-border military capability.”

Tensions between India and China have simmered ever since a border clash between their troops four years ago, despite signs of a thaw lately following talks.

The Indian Ocean region has remained a potential flashpoint as both countries rely on the trade routes for sourcing a majority of their energy imports and other raw materials, as well as exporting an array of merchandise across the world.

India is expected to deploy its third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine INS Aridhaman early next year, which may be equipped with a K-4 missile with a range exceeding 3,000km, local media reports say.

A fleet of three such submarines is generally considered the minimum that a country needs to maintain a deterrence patrol at any one time to allow for repairs and maintenance, experts say. Such a capability is needed to maintain a triad of land, air and sea nuclear deterrent against rivals, they add.

India is also reportedly building a fourth nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine, which will be higher-powered than the first three submarines and equipped with the longer-range ballistic missiles.

“We need longer-range missiles on nuclear submarines, which is a capability that China has already demonstrated. We have land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, but we don’t have adequate range on our submarine-based missiles,” said Ashok Mehta, an independent defence analyst.

Delhi follows a no-first strike nuclear weapons policy, which is premised on striking back only when attacked by another nation. In such an eventuality, maintaining a combined nuclear deterrent is vital for striking back because an aggressor’s first strike will aim to cripple retaliatory capabilities, experts say.

Other nuclear powers such as the United Kingdom and France maintain such continuous deterrence. Nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines are considered vital to such deterrent capabilities because of their ability to lurk undetected for long periods under vast expanses of the ocean.

India’s nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines report to a strategic forces command, an authority that is responsible for command, control and operations of nuclear weapons.

With a growing second-strike capability, India will be better able to maintain a balance of power and deter aggressors, bolstering its ability to act as a security provider in the Indian Ocean with partners including the United States and Japan, analysts say.

“India will have to acquire the necessary technical and manufacturing competence to ramp up numbers. This domestic capability is currently below the median,” Bhaskar said.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government since 2014, India has increasingly followed a Make in India policy to engage the domestic private sector in the manufacture of hi-tech defence equipment. While it has reduced expensive imports, it has also exacerbated concerns about falling behind on possessing the latest military technology.

India is a member of the Quad – a strategic partnership with Japan, Australia and the US that is committed to a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

It could help India in a broad way counter any threat posed by China, “but India is not a military ally of the US or any other Quad member … To that extent, it will limit the military ‘help’ that Delhi can either expect to receive from Quad members or what it can bring to the table”, Bhaskar said.

Delhi’s nuclear and naval might may not match Beijing’s capabilities, but analysts say India’s growing arsenal will be able to menace most parts of China and that should act as a sufficient deterrent in the future.

India is also reportedly building two nuclear-powered attack submarines that can gather intelligence, track targets and destroy them.

On Tuesday, India signed a deal with the US State Department to buy 31 armed MQ-9B SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones, according to the defence ministry. The drones will be predominantly used by the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean region.

Mehta expressed confidence that India would be able to ramp up its deterrence through nuclear-capable ballistic submarines in the future. “We will reach there,” he said.

Chinese Media SCMP