Azerbaijani news agency News.Az reported that the Indian Ministry of Defence authorized the export of Pralay quasi-ballistic missiles to Armenia, marking an important step in strengthening the defence partnership between India and Armenia. This decision, which has yet to receive official confirmation from the Armenian Ministry of Defence, reflects India's intent to conclude an agreement aimed at bolstering Armenia’s defensive capabilities in a context of regional tensions. According to Alpha Defence, this potential agreement is at an advanced stage, with sources indicating that India is actively negotiating to finalize it in the near future.

The Pralay missile, developed by India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is an advanced short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile, primarily designed for tactical use in combat conditions. Launched in 2015, the Pralay program represents a strategic advancement for India’s missile arsenal, incorporating sophisticated quasi-ballistic trajectory adjustments that allow the missile to evade interceptors and anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences. The missile has already successfully completed several tests, with the first two conducted in December 2021 and a third in November 2023, each demonstrating the missile’s accuracy, payload capacity, and terminal manoeuvrability.

The Pralay's unique quasi-ballistic trajectory enables it to shift from a traditional ballistic path to a flatter trajectory after launch, making interception more difficult by reducing its radar profile. This feature, combined with high speed and terminal maneuverability, brings the Pralay closer to the Russian Iskander-M missile, which has proven effective in recent conflicts, notably in Ukraine. The Pralay shares characteristics with the Iskander-M, such as a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of around 10 meters, highlighting its high accuracy and ability to evade air defences.

To comply with international arms control regulations, India has committed to limiting export versions of the Pralay to a maximum range of 300 kilometers and a payload capacity not exceeding 500 kilograms. This adherence to missile technology control guidelines requires technical modifications to the Pralay system, an adaptation that India is actively pursuing.

Powered by a solid-fuel motor and integrating maneuverable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) technology, the missile can carry payloads ranging from high-explosive fragmentation warheads to runway denial submunitions. These capabilities enable it to effectively target and neutralize critical military infrastructure such as radar installations, command centers, and forward airstrips, with enhanced precision and lethality.

Armenia’s interest in acquiring the Pralay missile stems from its need to counterbalance the capabilities acquired by Azerbaijan through its purchase of LORA (Long-Range Artillery) missiles developed by Israel Aerospace Industries. With a range of 400 kilometers and a CEP of 10 meters, the LORA missile represents a significant threat to Armenia’s strategic assets. The Pralay’s compatibility with various warhead types and its advanced guidance system, using both inertial navigation and a DSMAC (Digital Scene-Matching Area Correlation) seeker for increased accuracy, provide Armenia with an adequate response to Azerbaijan’s missile capabilities.

A distinctive feature of the Pralay is its fused silica radar dome (RADOME), which enhances its evasion capabilities and survivability in hostile airspace. The jet vane thrust vector control system allows the Pralay to perform evasive manoeuvres in the terminal phase, effectively countering enemy defence systems. Additionally, the Pralay includes two sets of small fins that help reduce its radar signature, further complicating interception efforts.

The Indian Pralay missile and the Israeli LORA (Long-Range Artillery) missile are two quasi-ballistic systems with short to medium range, but their performances and capabilities differ in several aspects. The Pralay has a theoretical range between 150 and 500 km, with a payload capacity ranging from 350 kg to 700 kg, allowing it to target strategic installations such as radars, command centers, and airstrips. However, to comply with international arms control regulations, India has limited export versions of the Pralay to a maximum range of 300 km and a payload not exceeding 500 kg. This technical adaptation, necessary to adhere to missile technology control guidelines, ensures that exported versions meet international standards.

The LORA, on the other hand, has a maximum range of 400 km and a payload capacity of approximately 570 kg. This missile was operationally used by Azerbaijani forces during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, demonstrating high accuracy with a CEP of 10 meters, particularly on targets such as bridges and critical infrastructure. Its guidance system, using GPS and TV imaging in the terminal phase, ensures high precision, although it remains potentially vulnerable to electronic countermeasures. Thus, the Pralay prioritizes better terminal maneuverability to evade interceptions, while the LORA stands out for its extreme precision in targeted strikes, with each featuring specific adaptations according to their usage contexts and regulatory requirements.

The Indian armed forces have shown strategic interest in the Pralay missile, with substantial orders from both the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force. In 2022, the Indian Ministry of Defence approved the purchase of 120 missiles for the Air Force, followed in 2023 by the acquisition of a regiment of 250 missiles for the Army, intended to strengthen tactical capabilities along sensitive borders with China and Pakistan. If the agreement with Armenia is finalized, this country would become the first international buyer of the Pralay missile, marking a historic milestone in Indian defence exports.

Defence relations between India and Armenia have considerably strengthened in recent years, illustrated by the transfer of sophisticated weaponry to meet Armenia's growing security needs in a tense regional context.

In 2020, India sold Armenia four Swathi radars, capable of detecting and locating enemy artillery fire, as well as M982 Excalibur precision artillery shells, enhancing Armenia’s defensive and retaliatory capabilities. Armenia is also interested in ATAGS (Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System) howitzers developed by DRDO, which offer extended range and increased accuracy, with the capability to fire projectiles up to 48 km.

The addition of ATAGS would strengthen Armenia's offensive capabilities, complementing its current arsenal. Additionally, the Pinaka multiple launch rocket system, also developed by DRDO, has attracted significant interest from Armenia. Capable of launching a salvo of twelve rockets in less than 45 seconds and reaching a range of 40 to 75 km depending on the variant, the Pinaka would provide mobile and versatile firepower, ideal for saturation strikes and ground support missions. Integrating the Pinaka would further strengthen Armenia's tactical options, while consolidating India as a key partner in defence.

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