India's advanced MBRL PINAKA export to Armenia, PM Modi with Armenian President

Recent developments in the South Caucasus have seen Pakistan and India enhancing military support for Azerbaijan and Armenia, respectively, as both nations seek to strengthen their airpower amid ongoing regional tensions. Both India and Pakistan are actively involved in enhancing the airpower capabilities of Azerbaijan and Armenia, respectively. This strategic manoeuvring is largely influenced by the ongoing tensions in the South Caucasus region, particularly between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The South Caucasus region, particularly Azerbaijan and Armenia, has witnessed a significant uptick in military modernization in recent years. This trend is largely driven by geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the desire of both countries to enhance their defence capabilities. Pakistan and India, two regional powers with strong military industries, have played a pivotal role in bolstering the airpower of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Pakistan's Support For Azerbaijan

Pakistan has signed a contract to sell JF-17 Block III fighter jets to Azerbaijan. This deal, announced on September 26, 2024, aims to bolster Azerbaijan's air capabilities, especially following its recent military confrontations with Armenia. The JF-17 is a multi-role combat aircraft co-produced with China, reflecting Pakistan's growing role as a defence supplier in the region.

The relationship between Pakistan and Azerbaijan has been strengthening, highlighted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's state visit to Pakistan in July 2024. During this visit, both countries agreed to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including defence.

Plans for trilateral military exercises involving Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan have also been discussed, further solidifying their military collaboration.

Pakistan's weaponry is essentially of Chinese origin, therefore it is also in China's interest to arm Azerbaijan to meet its geopolitical ambitions in Central Asia.

India's Support for Armenia

In response to Pakistan's growing ties with Azerbaijan, Armenia has turned increasingly towards India for military support. Since signing a $2 billion defence partnership in 2020, Armenia has made significant acquisitions of Indian-made weapon systems, including the Akash-1S air defence system, expected to be delivered later in 2024.

India's involvement in Armenia is seen as a counterbalance to Pakistan's influence in Azerbaijan and aims to enhance India's connectivity to European and Eurasian markets. This partnership underscores the strategic significance of the South Caucasus amid ongoing geopolitical rivalries.

Regional Geopolitical Dynamics

The military support from both countries reflects broader geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus. The region has been a focal point of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to two significant wars since the 1990s. As Azerbaijan modernizes its military with advanced aircraft from Pakistan, Armenia seeks to upgrade its defences through Indian assistance. This dynamic not only influences the military capabilities of both nations but also affects their relationships with external powers like Turkey and France, which are involved in supporting either side.

India would also have a geo-strategic self-interest in preventing Azerbaijan from building a preeminent and unmatched fighter fleet in the South Caucasus with Pakistan’s help.

Agencies