The announcement made by Narendra Modi regarding the acquisition of 26 Rafale-M and Rafale-B (2 Seater Version) for the Indian Navy, had been one of the highlights of the Indian Prime Minister's visit to France, on the occasion of the celebrations of July 14, 2023, reported the French media portal Meta-Defence.

Since then, however, Indian and French authorities have been very discreet about the progress in the negotiations, which also include the purchase of three additional Kalvari-class Scorpene submarines.

It now appears that this dynamic is close to its conclusion. Indeed, according to the Indian press, citing statements from Indian Navy officials, negotiations on this subject have progressed in recent weeks, and the contract could be signed by the end of 2024.

Negotiations for the acquisition of Rafale-M and Rafale-B by the Indian Navy delayed by several months by the Indian elections.

Negotiations between Paris and New Delhi, regarding the two major contracts announced during Modi's visit to France around July 14, 2023, were, according to sources, slowed down, or even suspended, by the electoral campaign for the Indian legislative elections , which were held on April 19 and June 1, 2024.

Order of 26 Rafale, of which 22 Rafale-M and 4 two-seater, for the Indian Navy, was announced on the occasion of Narendra Modi's official visit to France in 2023.

If the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition retained, at the end of the elections, a majority in the Indian lower house, with 293 of the 543 seats of deputies, its main political force, the Bharatiya Janata Party of Narendra Modi , its main component, obtained only 240 seats, compared to 300 during the previous judiciary, effectively losing the absolute parliamentary majority.

In any case, Narendra Modi retained his position as prime minister at the head of the country for five years, allowing negotiations to resume with Paris for the Rafales, or the three Kalvari-class submarines, for the Indian Navy.

On this subject, according to the Indian media, significant progress has been made in recent weeks, making it possible to fix, in particular, the configuration of the 22 Rafale-M and 4 Rafale-B, like all the services, ammunition and spare parts, which will accompany fighters.

We must, of course, take these assertions with a certain reservation. Indeed, the Indian press has often relayed excessively optimistic assertions, which have not been verified in fact. In addition, the tense political situation in France may, in turn, slow down negotiations with New Delhi.

However, India being a strategic partner for Paris, not being the subject of political dissension within the forces present during the upcoming legislative elections, we can assume that if there are delays, they will be limited, with no one having an interest in derailing such an order from New Delhi.

Among the information disseminated by the Indian press, there is notably the evolution of Rafale-M Indians, with respect to aircraft in service within the National Navy. Indeed, Indian embarked fighters will carry additional equipment, essentially identical to that which equips the Rafale-B/C of Indian Air Force.

These include, in particular, the helmet viewfinder, certainly the Targo II from the Israeli Elbit System, jamming and specific electronic warfare systems, or even an evolution of software to allow implementation on board carriers. Indian planes.

In terms of armament, it is also probable that the panoply which will evolve under the wings of Rafale Indian Navy, will be close to that of the IAF, with METEOR and MICA (NG?) air-to-air missiles, A2SM Hammer bombs, SCALP cruise missiles and, the naval version obliges, AM39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, observed under the wing of Rafale-M sent to India for Ski Jump use trials.

While ThePrint-in article is not very detailed about this configuration, not addressing, for example, the delivery standard of Rafale-M (certainly F4.x, allowing an evolution towards F5), it nevertheless gives interesting, and even surprising, information.

Indeed, until now, the Rafale of the Indian Navy, were supposed to be implemented aboard the INS Vikrant, the Indian-designed and manufactured aircraft carrier, delivered to the Indian Navy in September 2022.

However, in the article, it is specified that the requested software modifications will allow Dassault Aviation's on-board fighters to board all Indian aircraft carriers.

This declaration therefore assumes that the devices could also be deployed aboard the INS Vikramaditya, a Soviet-designed aircraft carrier belonging to the Kiev class, and vastly modified to implement onboard fighters using a springboard. Ski Jump and stop strands.

This suggests that the Rafale-M Indians could, in the long term, replace the MIG 29K which form the onboard air group of this 45000 ton, 284 meter aircraft carrier, built in the 80s, but entered service with the Indian Navy in 2014, after ten years of transformation.

Another subject of interest detailed in the article, the visit of an Indian Navy delegation to the Ambala air base, close to the Pakistani border, which houses one of the two squadrons of Rafale of the IAF.

The objective of this visit was to study possible synergies between the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force, regarding maintenance and training of crews and maintenance personnel of the two forces.

The close configuration of the land and sea versions of the Rafale Indian, will, without the slightest doubt, constitute a valuable asset in this area, including for the management of stocks of spare parts and ammunition, as well as the regeneration of aircraft and engines, with significant savings as a result. concerning the costs of ownership of hunters.

These similarities between the land and naval versions, allowing significant savings in configuration costs of the devices desired by the Indian armies, as well as synergies in terms of maintenance and training of the devices, including by the Indian aeronautical industry, already involved in the process, constitute very serious points concerning the chances of the Rafale to win in the MMRCA 2 competition, to replace the Indian Jaguars.

The Rafale-B and Rafale-C (single seat land-based version) of the Indian Air Force underwent numerous modifications to meet Indian requirements. Modifications which will largely be taken up for the Rafale M Indians, and which will not have to be financed, if the French fighter was chosen for the MMRCA-2 program.

Remember that this competition, launched in 2018, concerns the acquisition of 110 medium multi-purpose fighter bombers for the IAF, intended to replace the Mirage 2000 and Jaguar, from 2030. It follows the MMRCA competition, launched in 2001, won in 2012 by the Rafale, but cancelled in 2015, after Dassault Aviation and HAL, the Indian state aircraft manufacturer, over manufacturing procedures and guarantees.

The contract was replaced by the purchase of 36 Rafale-B and C, manufactured in France, intended to partially replace the withdrawal of Indian MIG-27 and MIG-21, as well as to carry the air component of Indian deterrence.

This €8 billion contract provided, in particular, for the evolution of Rafale by integrating certain technologies required by the IAF, such as the Israeli Tagos-II helmet sight, or the X-Guard towed decoy. In addition, a maintenance base, providing support for a fleet of 150 fighters, was also built.

These investments certainly played a role in the Indian choice to turn towards Rafale-M rather than towards the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet offered by Boeing, with significantly lower costs for the purchase and maintenance of the aircraft.

In the same way, the infrastructures deployed around the first order Rafale for the Indian Air Force, and the mass effect generated by the Indian Navy's decision to turn to Rafale M, will have a significant influence considering the acquisition and maintenance costs of the 110 fighters of the MMRCA 2 program.

Indeed, taking into account inflation pressures, the expected potential savings, concerning the investments already made, on the MMRCA program, now represent €4 to €5 billion. Compared to 110 jets, this amount represents a price difference of €36 to €45 million per fighter, putting the Rafale-B/C at an acquisition price almost half as high as the Typhoon and the F-15EX, but 40% less than the South Korean KF-21 Boramae, 30% more economical than the JAS-39 Gripen E/F and the Su-35s, the latter having, however, little chance of being chosen, so as not to provoke the ire of Washington and the triggering of sanctions through its CAATSA legislation.

Knowing that this contract also involves negotiations with the French company Safran, for the development of a new generation turbofan engines to power the new stealth fighters, the Rafale is today the favourite in this competition.

Meta-Defense France (Translated from the French)