by Dr Ramees Raja Beig

From Mid-2023 there was a surge in terror attacks in Jammu which was considered to be a safe place and declared terror-free by the Jammu and Kashmir Police many times. The geographical landscape of Jammu is harsher than Kashmir because of the vast and thick forests which lies between the LOC.

Understanding The Timelineof Major Attacks In Jammu Region

July 16, 2024: Four Army soldiers were killed in action in Doda, July 8, 2024: Five Army personnel were killed in action and five others injured after terrorists attacked a military convoy in Kathua district, June 11-12, 2024: Six soldiers injured in twin attacks, June 9, 2024: Nine people were killed and 33 injured after a bus full of pilgrims, attacked by terrorists, plunged into a gorge in Reasi, May 4, 2024: One soldier of the Indian Air Force was killed in action and five others were injured when two vehicles, including one of the IAF, came under heavy terrorist fire in Poonch district, December 21, 2023: Four soldiers killed in action, November 22, 2023: Five soldiers, including two captains, were killed in action, April-May 2023: 10 soldiers martyred in twin attacks, May 13, 2022: Four persons were killed after a pilgrim bus was attacked in Katra., December 14, 2021: Four soldiers were killed in action,

The possible reasons for the surge in attacks on soldiers and its aims and objectives can be classified into three categories: Kashmir, Pakistan and China

Kashmir

The security grid established in Kashmir in the last 35 years has succeeded. Here the life of a terrorist is not more than a month because of the vast intelligence inputs to the forces and security grid established after hundreds and thousands of experiments. Thus, Kashmir is not now an ideal ground for terrorists. Furthermore, the steps taken by the NDA-led government like the large-scale Public Safety Act to OGWs, seizure of property, etc., havecreated fear among the people who used to work for terror organizationsand gave a blow to the militancy and its ecosystem.

The earlier Policy ofMacho techniques adopted by security forces has been long ago abandoned and only those people are put under radar who are under the shadows of doubt. This gave a sort of confidence to the people who could easily go anywhere without any fear.

The center abrogated Article 370 in 2019 with a promise of developing Jammu and Kashmir and making it Terror-Free. This created a positive impact in the minds of ordinary citizens of India who came in Millions to beat the heatwave and gave impetus to tourism to such an extent that it broke all previous records. The people of the valleyknow development and terror can’t go together, hence the terror declined in the valley.

Jammu is ideal ground and will remain so because of its terrain, presence of a lesser number of soldiers than Kashmir, natural vegetation and shelters etc. are ideal grounds for terrorists to hide and launch attacks on forces.

Pakistan

The return of PMLN and its allies including PPP and the dismissal of Imran Khan led to the surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The Pakistani politicians have long been blaming Indian agencies for providing logistic and economic support to various organizations working against Pakistan which India always rejected as false accusations. Apart from blaming India, Pakistan on another hand is not only sending terrorists to Jammu but also based on various encounters giving them training with Special Forces to unleash maximum damage. Furthermore, the weapons used by Pakistan-backed terrorists are US-made (mostly brought from Afghanistan) and much more advanced than what India has. The use of night vision, steel bullets, scopes, etc. makes them much more accurate and lethal.

China

China could be directly or indirectly supporting attacks in the Jammu region for various reasons like to decrease the troop presence in Ladakh where the government moved manpower and logistics to stop the Chinese aggression after the Galwan clashes in which 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives. The Chinese despite having a much more advanced military than India, China could face the wrath of India and its Western allies furthermore, to scatter the Indian troops opening a new front is ideal for them. The Veto power, their chemistry with Russians, and souring relations between Europe and the USA create an ideal situation for them to take advantage of it.

Views expressed above are the author's own