Indian Air Force is hit by an ageing fleet, low serviceability & slow pace of upgradation by HAL. IAF fears it could end up with just 19 squadrons by 2042

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is unlikely to reach its target of 42 squadrons by 2042, even in the best-case scenario. According to sources, even if all planned inductions, including the TEJAS MK-2, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and 114 fighter aircraft, take place, the squadron strength will only reach 37 by 2042. The last time the IAF had 42 squadrons was in 2002.

The current squadron strength of the IAF is 35, and it is not possible for the IAF to reach the sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons in the next 10-15 years. The force will remain at 35 squadrons due to ongoing phaseouts and inductions.

The decline in active combat squadrons is primarily due to the retirement of older aircraft, such as the MiG-21, and the lack of available replacements. Additionally, the IAF plans to retire the MiG-27 and Jaguar squadrons as these aircraft reach the end of their service life in the 2020s.

It is important to note that the IAF is committed to increasing its squadron numbers, even if achieving the goal of 42 squadrons appears difficult at the moment. The IAF has already inducted two squadrons of TEJAS MK-1 and has four squadrons of TEJAS MK-1A on order. In addition, there are plans for six squadrons of TEJAS MK-2, six squadrons of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and six squadrons of the multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA).

In conclusion, based on the available information, it is unlikely that the IAF will reach the 42 squadron mark by 2042. The current projections suggest that the squadron strength will only reach 37 by that time.

The IAF has a squadron strength of 30 at present.

Even in the best case scenario, sources said, the IAF will not reach its sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons by 2042. That is if the force takes into account the TEJAS MK-2, the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and 114 fighter aircraft for which a Request For Proposal (RFP) is still awaited states a media report.

A major concern is the low serviceability of the fighter aircraft. While it is a fact that during Exercise Gagan Shakti last year, the IAF managed to get some impressive numbers, the figures at other times are abysmally poor.

For example, the serviceability ratio of the country’s frontline fighter aircraft is only around 58 per cent. This means that if there are 100 aircraft, only 58 are available for flying at a time with the others in service and maintenance.

HAL Delays

A major troubling aspect is the series of delays by HAL when it comes to its upgradation programs for the force. The IAF had even written to the government last year detailing the delays, the report further added.

For instance, HAL was tasked with upgrading 47 Mirage-2000 aircraft, tasked with delivery of nuclear payload, on 29 July, 2011, at a cost of ₹2,020 crore. The final operating capability (FOC) was scheduled to be completed by July 2017 but was it completed only by March 2018. HAL has revised the contracted production schedule thrice.

So far, HAL has upgraded only six aircraft against a contracted schedule of 21 aircraft, the IAF note says.

It is a similar story with the Jaguar Darin-III upgrade. In December 2009, HAL was handed the contract for upgrade of 61 deep penetration strike Jaguar Darin-I aircraft to Darin-III standard at a cost of Rs 3,113 crore.

The completion date of development activities and series upgrade of all 61 aircraft was December 2017. So far, however, no aircraft has been delivered to the IAF. The series upgrade is now expected to be completed by 2023-24, a delay of six years, the IAF has said.

Another concern is the go-slow approach when it comes to the RFP for the 114 fighter aircraft, especially in the wake of the Rafale contract controversy.

Following the signing of the deal for 36 Rafales, the government and the IAF were working on bringing out a tender for single-engine fighter aircraft, keeping the cost in mind.

The defence ministry, however, sprang a surprise by questioning the need for a single-engine foreign fighter when the indigenous TEJAS program was on. This caused the IAF to retune itself and bring out an RFP in April, which did not limit it to single-engine fighters.

Industry experts wonder how this will play out, because one of the primary factors for the selection of aircraft will be cost, besides technical parameters.

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