by Girish Linganna

India’s space program has been in the spotlight ever since the Chandrayaan-3 mission landed on the Moon’s southern hemisphere on August 23, 2023. The mission—costing a meager $75 million—covered everything, from the rocket launch to the propulsion system and the lunar lander and rover expenses. This cost-effective approach is driving other developing countries eager to establish their own sustainable space programs.

Following this success, India has unveiled plans for the Chandrayaan-4 mission, designed to land on the Moon’s far side and return with lunar samples. The upcoming Chandrayaan-5, 6 and 7 missions will focus on further extending lunar exploration. Starting with Chandrayaan-6, India plans to construct lunar habitats, with Chandrayaan-7 dedicated to building lunar infrastructure.

India’s first solar mission, Aditya L-1, focused on studying the Sun’s corona, successfully reached the Lagrange-1 point on January 6 after launch on September 2, 2023, taking 127 days to arrive.

India is also working on a human-rated launch vehicle for its Gaganyaan human spaceflight mission. This development includes creating life-support systems, bioastronautics, crew training and obtaining human rating and certification. On December 13, 2023, ISRO’s Somanath announced that India is developing its own environmental control and life support system (ECLSS).

Additionally, a second Mars mission is planned for 2030 to study the Martian atmosphere, featuring such experiments as the Mars Orbit Dust Experiment (MODEx), a radio occultation (RO) experiment, an energetic ion spectrometer (EIS) and a Langmuir probe and electric field experiment (LPEX). In 2031, India intends to launch Sukhryaan-1 mission.

In December 2023, India unveiled its official space policy, ‘Space Vision, 2047’, which aims to develop and bolster its commercial space sector and identifies the main institutions responsible for regulating its private space industry and clearly states its stance on using, and owning, space resources.

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced a space roadmap featuring the Chandrayaan-4 mission, planned for a conceptual phase with a targeted launch no earlier than in 2028; building a space station (Bharatiya Space Station), set to be positioned at an altitude of 120-140 kilometres in low-Earth orbit (LEO), by 2035; and sending astronauts to the Moon by 2040.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has proposed changing its name to the ‘Indian Air and Space Forces’ (IASF). This reflects a shift in India’s strategic approach, emphasizing the significance of space in national security. This initiative is part of India’s official space policy, which celebrates the 100th anniversary of India’s Independence from British rule in 1947.

In 2019, India established the Defence Space Agency, which functions similarly to a space force, along with the Defence Space Research Organisation. Also established in 2019, New Space India Ltd is tasked with commercializing space technologies and platforms developed with public funds. The Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) serves as a one-stop authorization hub for space activities involving both the public and private sectors.

To achieve its aim of developing and bolstering its commercial space sector, India has designated the Department of Space (DoS), which operates under the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) as the primary body for space policy-making and implementation. Meanwhile, the ISRO will concentrate on R&D.

As part of its broader initiative of transitioning from being ‘a potent air power’ to becoming ‘a credible aerospace power’ in years to come, the IAF is looking to collaborate with ISRO, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), IN-SPACe and the private space sector in India. By proposing to change its name to IASF in 2023, the IAF aims to enhance its precision navigation, timing (PNT) and intelligence, as well as surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), capabilities. Additionally, it seeks to develop abilities in space traffic management, space situational awareness and space weather prediction.

This initiative aligns with Prime Minister NarendraModi’s ‘MissionDefSpace’ plan announced in October 2022, which invited private space companies to tackle 75 defence-related space challenges to foster local development. At the Defence Space Symposium hosted by the Indian Space Association in April 2023, India’s Chief of the Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, stressed the need to focus on dual-use technologies, expand the NAVIC satellite constellation, enhance space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and ensure secure satellite-assisted communications.

India is advancing its efforts towards reusable space technologies. In April 2023, ISRO successfully conducted a test of the Reusable Launch Vehicle Autonomous Landing Mission (RLV-LEX). This technology, akin to that of a space plane, marks ISRO’s stride towards integrating reusable technology with its rocket launchers, aiming to achieve India’s 2025 goal of reusable launches.

ISRO is also developing the Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD) to further this initiative. India’s RLV-TD, known as PushpakViman, completed another test flight, called RLV-Landing Experiment-02 (RLV LEX-02) on March 22. This test successfully conducted an autonomous landing at the Chalakere runway.

ISRO explains that the winged RLV-TD serves as a flying test bed to assess different technologies—including hypersonic flights, autonomous landing and powered cruise flights. In future, this vehicle will be expanded to form the first stage of India’s reusable two-stage orbital launch vehicle.

Besides this, ISRO is developing a radioisotope heater (RHU) as part of the Chandrayaan-4 mission to handle the significant and extreme temperature fluctuations on the Moon. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman S Somanath says, “With 17 years until 2040, we have ample time to develop the technologies needed for human missions to the Moon. Meanwhile, our efforts to build the proposed space station are moving forward rapidly and we expect to have the first module ready by 2028.”

In 2023, India made significant strategic changes in its international partnerships by joining the US-led Artemis Accords, signalling a clear strategic direction. India stands out as the only signatory of the Artemis Accords that has achieved lunar landing capabilities to date.

In June 2023, the US and India signed a joint statement that emphasized enhancing space cooperation between the two nations. This agreement includes plans for Indian astronauts to train at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, collaboration on the International Space Station starting in 2024 and strengthening ties between the US and India in commercial space endeavours.

During the G-20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, the US and India issued a joint statement agreeing to set up a working group focused on commercial space collaboration, create a strategic framework for human spaceflight and enhance efforts in planetary defence.

In June, while agreeing to the Artemis Accords, PM Modi proposed the creation of a BRICS satellite network and a space exploration group during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023. During the Johannesburg summit, the BRICS countries declared their commitment to maintaining the long-term sustainability of space activities and preventing an arms race in outer space (PAROS).

They emphasised the need for negotiations to create a binding international agreement to prevent the weaponization of space. The revised draft treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects, was presented at the Conference on Disarmament in 2014.

Regarding the UK-led UN General Assembly Resolution 75/36, titled ‘Reducing Space Threats through Norms, Rules and Principles of Responsible Behaviour's’, India expressed that, while it agreed with the UK and other sponsors on the goal of reducing space threats, it believed the resolution failed to tackle the crucial matter of preventing an arms race in space through a universally agreed upon and multilaterally negotiated legally binding agreement on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS).

Additionally, India pointed out that the resolution introduced subjective concepts, such as defining responsible and irresponsible behaviours, characterizing and interpreting actions and the perception of threats. India was of the opinion this resolution was not aligned with the goal of preventing an arms race in outer space, which was of the utmost importance. For this reason, India voted against certain sections of the resolution.

In 2023, India had the privilege of hosting the G-20 summit in New Delhi. Alongside the summit, a special Space Economy Leaders Meeting took place. After the summit, Jitendra Singh, Minister for Science and Technology, shared an exciting prediction, stating that India’s space economy, which was currently valued at $8 billion, was projected to grow significantly and reach a remarkable $40 billion by 2040.

This suggests a substantial contribution and promising growth for India in the field of space exploration and technology. According to Singh, there has been a remarkable growth in the number of space startups in India. He mentioned that, in 2014, there were only four space startups in the country. However, by 2023, this number had significantly increased to over 150, demonstrating India’s recognition of the importance of commercial space ventures and their role in enhancing the country’s diplomatic space initiatives.

India, in particular, has unveiled an economic roadmap spanning from 2025 to 2047. This roadmap aims to propel space tourism, develop global space data solutions and establish India as a prominent global space manufacturing centre. The country’s vision involves making space more accessible, utilizing space data for various purposes and leveraging its manufacturing capabilities to contribute to the space industry worldwide. These developments mark a remarkable shift from the past and indicate India’s growing ambitions in the space domain.

In 2023, the PMO released a detailed timeline outlining India’s future plans in space. The Space Vision, 2047, Roadmap, unveiled in 2023, outlines a series of ambitious goals and milestones for India’s space program. The initiatives demonstrate India’s long-term vision and commitment to explore and utilize space for various strategic and scientific purposes.

These include the deployment of flexible communication satellites (COMSATS) by 2025; advancements in quantum and optical communications by 2030; initiation of a human spaceflight program by 2030; development of a reusable heavy launcher by the same year; creation of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) fully reusable vehicle between 2035 and 2040; space-based strategic deterrence by 2040; a manned mission to the Moon in the same year; establishment of interplanetary networks by 2047; and the pursuit of space mining by the same time frame.

India’s 2047 space roadmap shares similarities with China’s 2049 space strategy. Yet, India faces certain challenges. Notably, it has not yet introduced a super heavy-lift rocket comparable to SpaceX’s Starship, or China’s Long March 9. Currently, India lacks the ability to conduct human spaceflight, or to build and maintain large space structures. Additionally, India has not developed the advanced reusable space plane technology that China recently showcased. India is yet to establish a nationwide program for space-based solar power.

This suggests that India still has significant progress to make. However, projecting power in space is about relative strength and capability. Over the past decade, China has rapidly closed the gap with the US in space capabilities. Considering China’s economic challenges, India could be well-positioned to leverage its demographic advantages and talent pool by the 2040s to quickly catch up with the Dragon.

Time will reveal which country becomes the leading space power in the 2040s. The nation that consistently focuses on long-term policies, secures funding and invests in education, training and visionary planning will likely gain a strategic edge.

(With Agency Inputs)