With a two-thirds parliamentary majority for his party, president Muizzu has emerged all the more powerful to take pro-China decisions

India’s maritime neighbour and decades-old partner Maldives has inched further towards China, with the island nation’s president Mohamed Muizzu, known for his vocal pro-Beijing position, scoring a thumping parliamentary election victory. Muizzu’s party, the People’s National Congress, has won 70 out of the 93 seats in the country’s parliament, the People’s Majlis.

The verdict marked a clear polarisation of votes over Muizzu’s anti-India plank. With a two-thirds majority in parliament, Muizzu has emerged all the more powerful to be able to take strong decisions to steer the country away from its traditional ‘India first’ policy.

Observers say the new Maldivian regime may not be much favourable to India due to the shifting alliances or policies that prioritise other countries over New Delhi’s interests. This could affect bilateral relations, trade agreements and regional cooperation.

In his bid to keep India at a distance, Muizzu has approached countries like Turkey, Sri Lanka and China to help the island nation with healthcare, food and pharmaceuticals. The Maldives has signed a drone deal with Turkey and a pact with Lanka to deal with emergency medical evacuation. So far, India had been the country’s main source of such medical assistance.

While the Indian government is yet to react to the victory of Muizzu’s party, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has remarked that Beijing was ready to work with the Maldives to carry forward their traditional friendship, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership and speed up the creation of a China-Maldives community with a shared future to deliver greater benefits to their peoples.

India-Maldives ties began nosediving after Muizzu assumed office late last year. He stepped up the outreach to China, as part of which he arrived to a red-carpet welcome in Beijing this January to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping. Besides signing multiple agreements between Maldives and China, Muizzu was seen as getting hawkish on India. “We may be [a] small [nation], but that doesn’t give you the licence to bully us,” he said on returning home. The remark was read as anti-India.

During his visit to Beijing, the Maldives and China had signed 20 key agreements and announced that bilateral ties were being elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership. The Maldives owes China $1.37 billion (around Rs 11,400 crore), or around 20 per cent of its public debt, according to the World Bank. This makes Beijing its biggest bilateral creditor ahead of Saudi Arabia ($124 million) and India ($123 million). In addition, Chinese firms have invested approximately $1.37 billion in the Maldives since it decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014.

Over the years, anti-India sentiment has been on the rise in the Maldives. In April 2022, a giant banner with ‘India Out’ slogan came up on the walls of former Maldivian president and opposition leader Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s house in in Male. In June that year, a mob attacked Yoga Day activities organised by Indian diplomats in Male for being ‘un-Islamic’. These incidents were indicators of the changing public mood in the nation.

Muizzu, since taking charge, has visited Turkey, the UAE, and China, breaking from his country’s tradition of a new president choosing India for the first official trip. This tradition had been started by the country’s first democratically elected president Mohamed Nasheed in 2008 and followed by all successive heads of state.

After making a firm decision to ask Indian soldiers to leave the Maldives, the Muizzu government, last December, decided not to renew the agreement with the Indian Navy for a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian seawaters.

Two groups of Indian soldiers have left the island nation on March 11 and April 9, and the final withdrawal in scheduled by mid-May. The Indian defence ministry said 26 soldiers based in Addu city have been replaced by 26 Indian civilians.

According to the Maldives government, 88 Indian soldiers were stationed in the Maldives to operate helicopters in Addu and Laamu Kadhdhoo and a Dornier aircraft in Hanimaadhoo. The group includes doctors posted at the Senahiya Military Hospital in Male.

After exiting the hydrography agreement with India, the Maldives swiftly inked a ‘military assistance’ deal with China, sending another loud strategic message. Its defence ministry stated that the agreement was aimed at cultivating “enhanced bilateral relations” and confirmed that China would be providing training to its personnel.

Maldives, located barely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy in Lakshadweep and around 300 nautical miles from India’s west coast, is a key neighbour for New Delhi in the Indian Ocean Region, where China has been trying to increase dominance. Male has had a special place in Indian initiatives such as SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the Narendra Modi government’s Neighbourhood First Policy. New Delhi has been investing heavily in the country.

Experts see the Muizzu regime’s pro-China policy as a significant setback for New Delhi in its geopolitical contest with Beijing in the Indian Ocean Region. The Maldivian government’s increasing engagement with China is also considered a shift in its foreign policy alignment. This could involve financial aid, infrastructure projects or other forms of support from China, potentially leading to closer economic and strategic ties between the two countries, all of which raise concerns about India’s influence in the region and its security interests.

(With Agency Inputs)