Now as the ties between Pakistan and Iran are getting warmer, India must certainly take notice

by Monica Verma

Kautilya, father of Indian strategy and statecraft, had given a useful advice: If you have two enemies, then become friends with the lesser one temporarily so that you can fully focus on tackling the challenge from the mightier one. It seems Iran and Pakistan have taken a leaf out of his book and that’s why after a very rough patch in their relations, they are finally burying the hatchet. Their relations had become sour after a tit-for-tat cross-border strikes early this year over Pakistan’s failure to rein in anti-Iranian terror groups in its territory. But after that rocky road, Iran and Pakistan are mending their bilateral ties these days.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is currently on a visit to Pakistan. The last Iranian President to do so was President Hassan Rouhani who visited Pakistan in 2016 which was eight long years ago. Raisi’s visit is coming closely on the heels of rising tensions in the West Asian region with his country, Iran, caught in a conflict with Israel provoked by the latter’s attack on its consulate in Damascus, Syria.

Israel’s airstrikes had taken out a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Mohammed Reza Zahedi, leading Iran to retaliate with a reciprocal attack. The overwhelming attack included use of hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles by Iran which were successfully intercepted by Israel’s own air-defence mechanism along with some help from the United States, UK and Jordan. All this has happened in the background of the Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza after last year’s brutal terrorist attack on Israeli civilians. Although Israel’s war in Gaza is still going strong, it seems the current round of Iran-Israel escalation is over with Israel choosing to scale back its operation against Iran to avoid a war.

Nevertheless, the region is currently fraught with tensions and Iranian President’s visit to Pakistan may be seen in the light of the heat that Iran is facing in its neighbourhood. Although Pakistan is traditionally an ally of the Arabs with Saudi Arabia and not Iran its partner of preference in the region, the two still have a commonality and that’s their shared love for a pan-Islamic identity. Iran, despite being a Shia-dominated country, shares a close connection with Sunni-dominated Pakistan over matters that concern the Islamic world. In fact, both countries consider religion as central to their national identities and hence have a worldview which is tainted by the spirit of ummah (Islamic global solidarity).

Iran was one of the first countries to officially recognise Pakistan after India’s Partition in 1947 and likewise Pakistan had also quickly termed the Islamic revolution in Iran led by Imam Khomeini as legitimate. At a time when Iran is alienated in a troubled neighbourhood, Raisi’s visit to a fellow Islamic country is great for optics as well as psychological relief. None of the other Islamic countries have come to Iran’s support and that leaves it desperate for some validation for its actions.

Meanwhile, Pakistan too has a similar logic in accepting Iran’s olive branch. While Pakistan is already surrounded by multiple troubles including a fledgling economic situation, waning popularity of the military leadership, tensions with India as well as the threat from an emboldened Tehrik-e-Taliban, its best bet is to decimate at least one challenge on its border and that includes a back-to-normal relationship with Iran.

However, there is another logic to Iran-Pakistan’s mutual outreach. This one has to do with economy. American sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy with it even facing a back-to-back recession in recent years. The current economic situation is also precarious with a limited appetite in the country for some actual war-waging. Iran does have the largest source of natural gas after Russia, but the American sanctions mean that none of it can be actually leveraged to grow wealth—petroleum revenue for Iran has come down sharply in the recent years.

A desperate Raisi has reached Pakistan with a hope to revive trade relations. He has signed around eight agreements with Pakistan during the visit that also includes a proposal to set up a Special Economic Zone jointly. Iran is also convincing Pakistan to restart the pipeline project that the two countries planned in 2010. Iran has constructed its section of the gas pipeline, but Pakistan is yet to construct its part. It had sought a 10-year extension in 2014 from Iran to fulfil the obligations failing which it will have to pay billions of dollars for breaching the contract.

However, unlike Rouhani whose visit in 2016 was marked by the end of sanctions on Iran, Raisi’s luck is running out. Any business deal with Iran will attract sanctions from the US. Hence despite being desperate for Iranian gas, an energy-starved Pakistan won’t risk American sanctions. This makes the two countries’ promise to each other to increase bilateral trade from $2 billion to $10 billion an empty one.

Anyway as Iran has initiated a rapprochement towards Pakistan, it brings the most important question into the picture that what this development means for India’s interests. Well both Iran and Pakistan despite their Shia-Sunni divide have a history of coordinating positions when it comes to issues of the Islamic world.

During Raisi’s visit, the issue of Israel’s offensive in Gaza was also discussed where both countries condemned Israel for its actions. Just like Palestine, Kashmir also happens to be a sticking point with pan-Islamists. Here Pakistan’s obsession with Kashmir is one thing, but even Iran has tried to concretise its claims of leading the Islamic world by raising Kashmir on many occasions. This time also this was not different. While Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif linked Palestine issue with Kashmir during a joint press conference despite his country on the verge of bankruptcy, a much rational Raisi didn’t reciprocate this gesture while delivering his speech. Interestingly, a video grab of the press conference even shows him momentarily shocked when Sharif is raising the Kashmir issue. However, the joint statement issued by the two countries did mention Kashmir.

This marks a significant turn in India’s relations with Iran. Iran in the past may have played to the Islamist gallery by raising the Kashmir issue but India chose to ignore it and focused on Iran’s centrality to India’s strategic interests in Central Asia and beyond. However, Iran and Pakistan jointly raising the Kashmir issue from a common platform will not go down well with New Delhi. Iran’s use of the term “international law” with reference to Kashmir would also remind India of the UN resolution which it doesn’t agree with.

Early this month, even Saudi Arabia had mentioned the Kashmir issue in the joint statement. Many had defended it by saying that it didn’t at least mention UN resolution but referred to a bilateral solution, a position which is closer to New Delhi’s stand. In the case of Iran even that defence isn’t available. Clearly, India will have to recalibrate its approach towards Iran. It is true that Iran is key to India’s strategic interests in West as well as Central Asia through the Chabahar port investment. However, territorial integrity and sovereignty is also important and any mention of Kashmir that too from Pakistani soil will irk New Delhi for sure.

Now as the ties between Pakistan and Iran are getting warmer, India must certainly take notice. Despite an exchange of missile attacks early this year, they have found a common plank to target India over Kashmir. Besides the Kashmir card and Islamic solidarity over it, India’s ties with Iran are far more meaningful than Pakistan’s outreach to Iran. However, a desperate hunt for validation by two troubled Islamic countries cannot make India a scapegoat.

The author is a New Delhi-based commentator on geopolitics and foreign policy. She holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University.