India successfully test-fired Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple warheads on March 11. It is a major breakthrough and will enhance India's strategic deterrence capabilities

by Ranjit Kumar

The successful test-firing of India’s Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple warheads on March 11 has attracted the attention of strategic community the world over, as it not only will prove to be a game-changer in India’s missile weaponry, but also change the dynamics of missile powerplay among major powers. The Agni missile equipped with MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) will make India invincible as no power on earth has yet achieved any capability to deflect the multiwarhead missiles and simultaneously intercept them. Hence, the MIRV-equipped Agni-V long range ballistic missile will give a new dimension to the deterrent capabilities of Indian military with strategic nuclear deterrence.

Though the MIRV technology was first introduced in 1970 by the US military, Indian achievement in this technology domain five decades later should by no means undermine the significance of its induction in Indian military. Such technologies are not available in open market, and missile powers — even those strategically aligned to India — have jealously safeguarded this technology. In the face of strict technology denial regimes like MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime), the Indian defence scientists, who empowered India with this missile technology, deserve kudos for making India an unbeatable missile power. The MIRV warhead launch capability showcased to the world India’s political will to challenge any enemy as this will make India a real nuclear missile power and will strengthen India’s military muscle.

The development and testing of Agni-V MIRV has indeed put India in a higher league and will position India on the high table of missile powers. It’s a great leap forward in missile technology as only the US, Russia, China, the UK and France currently possess this capability. The grand Indian achievement has already conveyed a message to rival nuclear missile powers that India cannot be browbeaten and forced to submit to the expansionist agenda of its neighbours. This added firepower is commensurate with the status of the fifth largest world economy, which needed this offensive capability to deter India’s strategic rivals from challenging its rise in economic and strategic arena.

Though India had flight-tested its maiden Agni-V ballistic missile, with over 5,000-km range, almost a decade ago and is now a part of the Strategic Forces Command, it was well aware of efforts of the rivals to neutralise the Agni-V ballistic missiles with missile defence systems. China had first strengthened its ballistic missile defence system by inducting the Russian S-400 anti-missile systems, and has now developed its indigenous BMD. India is also on the same course to strengthen its ballistic missile defence capability with Russian S-400 along with its own indigenous BMD. But China has not acquired any BMD that can safeguard its territory from any Indian multi-warhead Agni ballistic missiles. In fact, not even super-advanced BMD power US has been able to acquire any such defensive mechanism to neutralise any attacking MIRV-equipped ballistic missile in its space.

True to its name — the mythological 'Divyastra' from the Mahabharat and Ramayana eras — the multi-warhead Agni-V has been appropriately designated, which when launched on the enemy territory will not rest until it has caused havoc on the enemy target. Hence, the thought of its existence in the Indian missile arsenal will be enough to make an enemy nation think twice before launching any nuclear attack on Indian soil. India has thus restored greater balance in the India-China nuclear deterrent relationship. The MIRV can also have decoys to fool the enemy defence systems. Even if the China-Pakistan combine forces India to face a two-front war situation, the MIRV Agni will put more confidence on the Indian military to simultaneously tackle the two nuclear armed neighbours.

This MIRV-armed Agni Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) acquired under Mission Divyastra can deliver missiles on targets spread over a few hundred kilometres apart, which will make the defender’s task almost impossible to stave off missiles in different directions and different targets. According to experts, the Agni MIRV can carry four to 12 missiles. The MIRV technology will increase the survivability of its nuclear tipped missiles. The MIRV-tipped Agni missiles will also enhance the confidence of Indian strategic planners to stoutly deal with the enemy as India has committed itself to no-first use doctrine.

Agni-VI 'Surya' In The Pipeline

In spite of India’s principal nuclear rivals China and Pakistan adopting the first use doctrine, the Indian military will be able to strike a devastating response to the enemy. Thus, by acquiring the MIRV Agni, India has strengthened its no-first-use doctrine by making the enemy nation aware of the consequences of first strike. This speaks of India’s maturity and non-aggressive policy.

India, as a responsible global power, has consistently displayed a sense of geopolitical balance and adherence to UN treaties. India has no hegemonistic designs but taking measures to defend its territories that are facing a volatile neighbourhood. Also, Indian strategic observers refute the contention of US expert Hans Kristensen, the director of Nuclear Information Project of Federation of American Scientists, who said Indian Agni-V would be an important target for an adversary to destroy before they could be launched to reduce the damage, and hence, the new Agni would pose a "bigger danger to India itself”. This shows the concern even in US strategic circles over the likely challenge from Indian missiles to the US. However, India’s missile program is purely defensive and in response to the threat it faces from the rival powers.

The long range Agni-V missiles will not only be able to get entire Pakistan within it’s strike range, but even China. India’s MIRV-equipped Agni-V missiles have been principally designed to take on the China challenge. Satellite images indicate more than 300 new missile silos. China has reportedly more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, with plans to expand it to 1,000 warheads by 2030. A cash-strapped and technologically backward Pakistan is also dreaming to acquire a multi-warhead missile. India is also responding and, in fact, knowledgeable sources contend that Indian missile range will be further augmented with a new series of Agni-VI version. This will ensure that India does not lag behind in the missile race with its present and future rivals.

The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst