Movement of Chinese troops has increased along the India-China border areas

An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a “potential” armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides and sporadic encounters between their militaries, adding the border dispute “will remain a strain” on ties between the neighbours.

The assessment further states that China is looking to establish overseas military bases at multiple locations - including Sri Lanka and Pakistan - in its attempt to “project power” and “protect China’s interests abroad”.

“The shared disputed border between India and China will remain a strain on their bilateral relationship. While the two sides have not engaged in significant cross-border clashes since 2020, they are maintaining large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces risk miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict,” states the annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community, released by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on Monday, as it talks about potential inter-state conflicts.

The report highlights a fragile global order, China’s military expansion plans, its aggressive cyber operations and its possible attempt to influence the 2024 US presidential elections. It further talks about other conflicts including the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week inaugurated the strategic Sela tunnel, built at an altitude of 13,000 feet in Arunachal Pradesh, that will provide all-weather connectivity to Tawang.

Infrastructure projects near Indo-China border have gathered pace since a military standoff with China in Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) began in May 2020. Both sides have arrayed close to 50,000 troops each in Ladakh sector and India has made it clear that bilateral relations cannot be normalised till there is peace and tranquility in the border areas.

The report also points to possible armed conflict between India and Pakistan as well in case of any provocations from Islamabad.

“New Delhi and Islamabad are inclined to sustain the current fragile calm in their relationship following their renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021. However, neither side has used this period of calm to rebuild their bilateral ties as each government has focused on more pressing domestic priorities including election perpetrations and campaigning and for Pakistan, concerns over rising militant attacks in its west,” the report underscores.

“Pakistan’s long history of supporting anti-India militant groups and India’s increased willingness, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations raise the risk of escalation during a crisis. There remains the potential for an event to trigger a rapid escalation,” it added.

On China’s plans to create overseas bases in India’s neighbourhood and other areas, the report states that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will “continue to pursue the establishment of overseas military installations and access agreements in an attempt to project power and protect China’s interests abroad”.

“Beyond developing its military base in Djibouti and its military facility at Ream Naval base in Cambodia, Beijing reportedly is considering pursuing military facilities in multiple locations, including—but not limited to—Burma, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, and the UAE,” it says.

The report notes that Beijing will focus on building a fully modernized national defense and military force by 2035 and for the PLA to become a world-class military by 2049.

“In the meantime, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) hopes to use the PLA to secure what it claims is its sovereign territory, to assert its pre-eminence in regional affairs, and to project power globally, particularly by being able to deter and counter an intervention by the United States in a cross-Strait conflict”, it adds.

(With Agency Inputs)