A Chinese vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 01, has been spotted off India's Eastern seaboard while its sister ship continues its month-long survey of the Indian Ocean region. Interestingly, the vessel's movement coincided with the same timeframe when India announced its flight restriction zone over the Bay of Bengal, reported Bidisha Saha of India Today.

Open-source Intelligence team (OSINT) tracked the movement of both the Chinese spy ships in the Indian Ocean region prior to India’s announcement of a no-fly zone or NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions).

A NOTAM is a notice containing essential information for personnel involved in flight operations, providing details about hazards, impending air exercises, or changes to flight operations that may affect safety.

Utilising open-source maritime tracking data, the individual tracks of both vessels have been mapped to illustrate their survey zones relative to the designated no-fly zone for potential missile testing.

On March 7, India issued a NOTAM delineating a substantial no-fly zone encompassing areas over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean region. Effective from March 11, this NOTAM designates restricted airspace spanning 3,550 kilometres, suggesting the probability of a missile test originating from the APJ from Abdul Kalam Island near Odisha.

As per the analysis, the maritime route of Xiang Yang Hong 01 traverses the area specified in the NOTAM.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday praised India's successful first flight test of indigenously developed Agni-5 missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology as another milestone.

While the specific details of the test are not officially announced, experts speculate that it could involve the testing of Agni-V Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) or the K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

In a conversation with India Today, Pooja Bhatt, author of the book Nine Dash Line and a maritime security analyst, said, "The presence of Chinese spy ships in the Indian Ocean has become routine. Such occurrences are particularly common during Indian missile testing by Isro or the military in the Eastern seaboard."

"India recently issued a NOTAM for a substantial no-fly zone spanning over the IOR indicating a missile test. It is highly probable that these ships are monitoring the missile test," she added.

The Agni-V, boasts a range exceeding 5,000 kilometres and stands as India's premier Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and a pivotal component of the nation's strategic deterrence capability.

On the other hand, the K-4 is specifically crafted as a nuclear-capable missile for launch from submarines, furnishing India with a vital sea-based strategic second-strike capability, as reported by India Today.

India routinely conducts missile tests across specified regions in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, adhering meticulously to international safety protocols.

Prior to these tests, relevant authorities, airmen and maritime users are duly notified through NOTAMs. These tests play a crucial role in validating the operational readiness and technological sophistication of India's missile arsenal.

Bhatt said, "The range of the NOTAM hints towards testing of K-4 SLBM that India has been successfully testing from its maiden nuclear submarine Arihant since 2016. Subsequent successful testing will demonstrate the strengthening of the sea-leg of the nuclear triad of the country, apart from land and air. It will add to the security dimension, both in territorial and maritime domains, especially on its Eastern seaboard."

"Several countries, including China, would be interested in gathering more information on the range and success of these tests by tracking the trajectory, target engagement and accuracy through various sophisticated equipment such as radar, telemetry and electro-optical tracking systems that might be present onboard the Chinese spy ship," she added.

While the overt mission of these vessels entails conducting hydrography and hydrological surveys for prospective PLA Navy submarine operations in the Indian Ocean region, their deployment off India's Eastern seaboard suggests a secondary role in monitoring missile firings at the Balasore test range. Furthermore, they are engaged in detecting the signatures of Indian nuclear ballistic missile-carrying submarines stationed near Visakhapatnam.

Under the garb of hydrographic surveys, PLA vessels clandestinely intercept noise signatures emitted by Indian submarines. Simultaneously, they monitor missile test firings conducted at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) on APJ Abdul Kalam Island, subsequently relaying the coordinates to Chinese spy satellites for comprehensive surveillance.

Currently, the Xiang Yang Hong 03’s maritime data shows a pattern of zig-zag movement which indicates a semantic method pattern of ship motion used in ocean-bed research among others, according to maritime experts.

Two weeks back, the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3 made a port call in the Male port for operational turnaround, as per the Maldivian government.

The key source of concern is the ability of such survey ships, while purportedly conducting research and maritime tracking activities in the Indian Ocean region, to map the ocean’s seabed and study maritime currents and oceanographic trends.

According to Commodore (Retired) C Uday Bhaskar, the continuity in the trajectory shows China aiming at mapping the Indian Ocean region in a very detailed manner for conducting evasive activities such as deploying submarines and underwater mines.

All this collected information can be used for military purposes. In a comprehensive research of the open-source realm, at least 64 Chinese research hulls were identified in comparison to India's fleet of 14 research vessels, resulting in a rough 1:4 ratio between the two countries when it comes to naval mapping.

Frequent Recurrence of Spying

This is not the first time that a Chinese vessel has been seen entering the Indian Ocean region just before a planned missile test by the Indian authorities.

In November 2022, India Today reported that Yuan Wang 6 and Yuan Wang 5 meandered the Indian Ocean region, days before a planned missile test. India later cancelled the NOTAM, announcing a no-fly zone in the Bay of Bengal for the tests slated on November 10 and 11, 2022.

In December that year, India again issued a NOTAM over the Bay of Bengal, and this saw a Chinese research vessel, Yuan Wang 05, make a U-turn on its course and return to the Indian Ocean region.