The rise of new powers with advanced missile technology necessitates a continuous evolution of India’s deterrence strategy

The successfully test-fired Agni-V ballistic missile equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology vastly extends India’s strategic envelop.

Power of Extended Range

The Agni-V boasts an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) range, exceeding 5,000 kilometres. This extended reach significantly alters India’s strategic landscape. Traditionally, India’s missile arsenal primarily focused on deterring threats from its immediate neighbours. However, the Agni-V’s extended range allows India to potentially engage targets across vast distances, encompassing a broader spectrum of potential adversaries. This expanded reach compels any potential aggressor to consider the wider ramifications of a conflict with India. The psychological impact of this extended deterrence capability is undeniable. The stakes have just gone up.

MIRV Technology: A Game Changer

The integration of multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle technology turbocharges India’s capability to launch a survivable multiple nuclear attack from a single source. MIRV allows a single missile to carry multiple independently targeted warheads. During the final stages of flight, these warheads separate and manoeuvre towards pre-designated targets. This capability significantly complicates an enemy’s missile defence system. Previously, an enemy could potentially expend a single interceptor missile to neutralise an incoming threat. However, with MIRV technology, the enemy’s defence system would need to engage and destroy each independently targeted warhead, exponentially increasing the defensive burden. This complexity significantly enhances the effectiveness of the Agni-V as a deterrent.

A Look At China’s Missile Arsenal

It’s important to acknowledge the regional context. China, India’s hostile neighbour, possesses a robust and growing missile arsenal. China’s Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) ICBM, with an estimated range exceeding 12,000 kilometres, dwarfs the Agni-V in terms of sheer reach. However, the Agni-V’s successful test firing demonstrates India’s commitment to closing the strategic gap. Furthermore, India’s indigenous development program allows for greater flexibility and faster production. It makes a greater range and more powerful warhead-integrated missile system just a matter of time and investment.

Nuclear Deterrence: Maintaining Stability

The Agni-V, with its extended range and MIRV technology, serves as a potent deterrent against potential nuclear threats. The concept of deterrence relies on the credible threat of massive retaliation to dissuade an enemy from launching a nuclear attack. India has no first use of nuclear weapons posture, though there has been ambiguity on India’s commitment to that posture lately. The Agni-V’s capabilities complicate strategic choice for an adversary especially with regards to a nuclear first strike against India, knowing the potential for devastating retaliation across multiple targets. This strengthens regional stability and discourages the use of nuclear weapons.

Road Ahead

While the successful test of the Agni-V marks a momentous milestone for India’s strategic defence, the journey doesn’t end here. Continued development and modernisation of India’s missile program are crucial to maintaining a credible deterrent in the face of an ever-evolving global security landscape. India must prioritise research and development in areas like hypersonic missiles and advanced defence penetration capabilities to stay ahead of potential threats.

The next logical step in India’s evolving deterrence strategy should be the enhancement of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) equipped with MIRV technology. India needs to extend the range and add MIRV capabilities to its Sagarika K4 missile program.

This will provide critical enhanced survivability and second-strike capability as land-based missile silos, despite their hardening, remain vulnerable to a pre-emptive first strike. Submarines, on the other hand, offer a much more challenging target for an adversary. Nuclear-powered submarines are fiendishly difficult to locate because of their inherent quiet mobility and ability to operate undetected underwater significantly complicating efforts to locate and neutralise them. A nuclear-powered submarine with a SLBM equipped with MIRV technology further strengthens this survivability. With multiple warheads on a single missile, even a successful first strike wouldn’t eliminate India’s retaliatory capability. This robust second-strike capability strengthens India’s deterrence posture by making a potential nuclear attack a far less attractive option for any adversary. It also allows India to pivot to a first strike should such an eventuality present itself.

Countering Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) Strategies

Several potential adversaries possess sophisticated A2/AD capabilities, designed to restrict access to critical regions during wartime. These strategies often involve deploying advanced air and sea defences that could potentially hinder the launch of land-based missiles. SLBMs provide India with the ability to circumvent such A2/AD measures. Submarines can operate within the protected zones, launching their missiles from a much closer range, making them a potent tool to counter these defensive strategies.

Maintaining Credible Deterrence In A Multipolar World

The global security landscape is undergoing a significant shift towards a multipolar world. The rise of new powers with advanced missile technology necessitates a continuous evolution of India’s deterrence strategy. An SLBM on a nuclear-powered submarine with MIRV capability demonstrates India’s resolve to maintain a credible deterrent against a wider range of potential threats. The ability to launch missiles from a constantly shifting underwater platform adds an element of strategic ambiguity that further complicates an adversary’s planning.

Put differently, the development of an SLBM on a nuclear-powered submarine with MIRV technology should be seen as a natural progression of India’s strategic defence strategy. This capability offers enhanced survivability, strengthens India’s second-strike capability, and allows it to counter potential A2/AD strategies. In a world with evolving threats and a multipolar security landscape, a robust and credible deterrent is paramount for India’s national security. While challenges exist, India’s commitment to self-reliance and technological advancements positions it well to overcome them.

It’s time to celebrate Divyastra and focus ahead, on the Brahmastra.