by Brig Arun Bajpai

Pakistanis have been rejoicing the recent news of Taliban is capture of Afghanistan with Afghan Army melting away. What these people who are distributing sweets on the streets of Pakistan do not understand that this is the worst news for Pakistan and why it is so they will understand in due course of time. But then while 60% of Pakistanis having hatred for India are celebrating this event, as now Pakistan has realised its long held strategic depth dream against India it being a shallow country in depth , however the 40% saner elements in Pakistan are ruing this news as they realise what catastrophe will now befall on Pakistan.

We must know that while Pakistan is an Islamic country, Shariya laws are not applicable in Pakistan. Shariya law means no education for women, Burqa and going back to medieval days. If a person is caught thieving then his hands will be chopped off .for serious crimes no CRPC, it is death by stoning and so many other things. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) an arm of Taliban has already told Pakistan that if they want friendship with Taliban then Shariya laws must be imposed in Pakistan. It is true that Pakistan has been the mentor of Taliban that is Afghan Taliban and has been helping Taliban with money and other resources including providing safe houses to top leaders of Taliban in Quetta and looking after Taliban’s including providing them treatment at hospitals in Pakistan. It was Pakistan along with Saudi Arabia and UAE who provided recognition to Taliban regime which ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2000, till they were ousted by American invasion in 2001. US which was very annoyed with Taliban who had housed Osama Bin Laden and sheltered him till 9/11 when it was found he was responsible for attack on US trade centre in New York killing 3000 Americans. Pakistan was told that it must decide which side it is, if it takes Taliban side then US will bomb it to smithereens. Pakistan chose US but clandestinely kept on helping Taliban.

Taliban in 2001 was totally dependent on Pakistan .even for any negotiations it looked up to Pakistan. However this Taliban after 20 years is a different entity. It has become worldly wise, can negotiate in international forum on its own, and has got used to luxury cars a fact which Pakistan is not realising. Already it has released 4000 prisoners from Afghanistan jails who are mostly from TTP. When Pakistan told afghan Taliban that TTP is enemy of Pakistan and that these prisoners must be again put in jail, the Taliban refused. The next on line of difference will be the 2500 km long Durand line the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan which Afghanis do not accept. Afghan Taliban is basically made of Sunni Pashtuns with almost 20% of Pashtuns population falling in Pakistan across Durand line. TTP is made of these Pashtuns who have ethnic relations with Afghan Pashtuns. Three commanders of TTP namely Mufti Noor Wali Maseed TTP chief has called upon his fighters to attack Pakistan forces pointing out atrocities committed by Pakistani Army, released TTP head Maulvi Faqir Ahmed wants Kafir govt in Pakistan changed, another TTP commander warned Pakistan of Pashtun nationalism and wants greater Pashtunistan. All these developments are not good for Pakistan and sooner than later Pakistan may be forced to cede its Pashtuns KPK province and its tribal areas to Taliban.

Pakistan felt that with Taliban now ruling Afghanistan all its dreams are being materialising and also it is gaining strategic depth against India. It forgot the saying that man proposes but it is God which disposes. Taliban is coming to forefront; it is not bothered about Pakistani interests. TTP is regaining its lost territory; Taliban is reviving its close contacts with Al Qaida, ISIS. They have decided to establish a Shariya Caliphate by throwing away an Islamic sham democracy in Pakistan. Attack on Chinese nationals and 400 persons groping a single TikTok girl in Lahore recently are all trends pointing to a bleak future for Pakistan. As for India it has no option but to strengthen its defence forces, what with China and Pakistan nexus breathing down its neck.

Brig Arun Bajpai (Retd) is a distinguished Defence and Strategic Analyst. Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDN. IDN does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same