Why China's Aggressive Rise As A Superpower Spells Bad News For India
This ambition poses particular problems for India as China is determined to assert its position in the world
by Shelley Singh
China dictates terms at international bodies, including the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization.
You can choose your friends, but not your neighbours,” former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was fond of repeating whenever border issues flared up. But India’s long shared border with China assumes great significance as we enter an era of great geopolitical realignment in the global order, where China is an aspiring hegemon, replacing or standing alongside the United States as a great superpower.
This ambition poses particular problems for India as China is increasingly determined to assert its position in the world, even if it means rubbing a lot of countries the wrong way simultaneously.
It has been head-butting with the US on trade since the beginning of the Trump presidency. Its aggressiveness in the South China Sea has sparked deep concern among Japan and a string of South East Asian countries. Maritime and airspace incidents with Taiwan and Vietnam were recently reported. And with Australia, it recently got into an ugly trade powwow over that country’s support for an independent inquiry into the origins of coronavirus. All of this spells bad news for India as an aggressive and unfriendly superpower rises in the neighbourhood.
National security expert and research professor in security studies at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, Bharat Karnad, says: “What Chinese understand very well is tit for tat. And that is precisely what we are unwilling to do and that is why we get it in the neck all the time. An option now is to start denying Chinese companies easy access to Indian market. That is our big asset, as militarily, we are at a disadvantage.”
Here is a look at how China stands in the world and in relation to India, across trade, territory and COVID-19.
TRADE
On The Front Foot
The balance of trade is clearly tilted in favour of China — India imports far more from its second largest trading partner than it exports. A big reason for that is India’s own inability to scale up its manufacturing prowess despite campaigns such as Make in India and “Atmanirbhar Bharat”. Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, says, “It is a one-sided relationship where China enjoys a massive trade surplus equal to the total defence spending of India.
Now, with the conflict, this is unacceptable.” India is heavily dependent on China for everything from computers to hairpins. So is much of the world, with China producing over 70% of the air conditioners, computers and smartphones sold in the world.
Even as the world woke up to the worst India-China border confrontation in over five decades, China’s Great Wall Motors on June 16 signed a $1 billion investment pact with the government of Maharashtra. Tencent and Alibaba are active investors in India’s startup ecosystem which boasts of over 20 unicorns, 15 of which have investment from China.
Now India is screening all foreign direct investments from China and there could be invisible barriers like delayed visas, delayed approvals.
Nitin Kunkolienker, president of IT hardware makers’ association MAIT, says, “We killed manufacturing in the past because of wrong policies. Now India is trying to build a base. But to scale it, you have to solve the persistent problem of red tape.” For China, India is a massive consumer market that is hard to ignore. For India, China offers low-cost manufacturing options. For both, it will be difficult to look for alternatives in a post-Covid economy, at least in the short term.
GEOPOLITICS
Changing Contours
China has for long had land border disputes with its neighbours. It does not recognise Taiwan as a separate country. This week, besides the clash in Galwan, Chinese fighter jets violated Taiwanese airspace with impunity. In the South China Sea, the Asian giant keeps overriding claims of at least half-a-dozen countries over oil exploration and fishing. In 2017, China opened its first overseas base in Djibouti.
The South China Morning Post recently wrote: “If his (Xi’s) foreign policy was aimed to help rewrite the international order in a manner favourable to China’s own interests, it is failing. If it was aimed at gaining new friends, it is failing. If it was aiming to court US allies away from Washington, it is failing.”
China dictates terms at international bodies, including the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization. It has worked against India getting a permanent seat at the UN. This week India was elected as a non-permanent UN member for the eighth time.
Chellaney says, “China is trying to seize the preoccupation of the world with the pandemic to open multiple fronts, without incurring major costs.”
Last year, the European Union labelled China a “systemic rival”. Several countries are reconsidering their decision to allow Shenzhen-headquartered Huawei to build their 5G infrastructure. In June, politicians from 12 nations established a cross-party alliance to help coordinate response to challenges posed by the Asian giant.
National security expert Karnad says, “Covid-19 is a side line story in all of this. India has to be far more generous with its neighbours (Nepal, Sri Lanka) and far more belligerent with adversaries its own size. China is the only military threat that India has.”
On the Offensive
COVID-19
On The Back Foot
Numerous pandemics have originated in China, including SARS in 2002 and COVID-19 in 2019. The latter has crippled the world, shrunk global economies and increased unemployment to record highs. COVID-19 has so far infected more than 8 million people globally, with close to half a million succumbing to the virus. It is being called the worst pandemic in more than a century.
From the outbreak of the disease in Wuhan in November, China’s role in getting to the root of the problem has been far from helpful. It has been accused of dictating WHO’s messaging about the pandemic. China declined the international community access to the labs in Wuhan to study the virus.
In fact, Beijing responded to Australia’s request by putting tariffs of up to 80% on key Australian imports such as beef and barley, and warning Chinese students to not to go to Australia to study.
Countries around the globe are suffering because of a tardy response from China. Parag Khanna, managing partner of FutureMap, says, “There is great suspicion across Asia as to China’s motivation and poor regulation.”
Even attempts by China to help by supplying COVID-19 test kits have not gone down well. China bumped up prices of test kits and other medical equipment — some of which were found faulty and rejected.
France’s ministry of foreign affairs pulled up officials of the Chinese embassy in Paris for reporting the country’s elderly residents had been abandoned to die in their nursing homes. German tabloid Bild published a bill of $162 billion that China owes the European nation for having concealed details about the virus. China’s opaqueness and less-than-helpful moves will clearly make it earn more enemies than friends as the world comes out of quarantines and lockdowns.
Beijing Bashing
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