India is cautious, notwithstanding the Taliban's outreach to New Delhi, even as it welcomed Sunday’s decision by the group and the Ghani government in Afghanistan to enter into a ceasefire on the occasion of Eid

NEW DELHI: India is cautious, notwithstanding the Taliban's outreach to New Delhi, even as it welcomed Sunday’s decision by the group and the Ghani government in Afghanistan to enter into a ceasefire on the occasion of Eid.

The Modi government is closely monitoring the unfolding political events in Kabul and attempts made by the Taliban to join the political mainstream. India hopes that leaders from the Tajik and Uzbek communities within Afghanistan were also accommodated in any coalition government, ET has learnt. It favours strengthening of democratic forces in Kabul and wants terror sanctuaries to be eliminated.

On the occasion of Eid-ul-Fitr, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s President, Ashraf Ghani, announced a three-day ceasefire on Sunday. This comes just days after US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was in Kabul and Doha.

Welcoming the move, India’s foreign ministry stated: “We hope that this ceasefire would extend further and become permanent to address the dire humanitarian situation resulting from the Coronavirus pandemic and pave the way for durable peace and stability for the people of Afghanistan. India stands with the people of Afghanistan in their quest for enduring peace, security, sovereignty, and prosperity.”

A recent statement by the Taliban on non-interference in internal matters of other countries (with reference to Kashmir) is being seen as a tactical one ahead of Intra-Afghan dialogue. The Indian establishment is, however, wary of efforts by the Taliban to capture power by force while the international community remains busy fighting COVID-19.

Any effort to take power by force will not allow any engagement between a Taliban government and Delhi, according to experts on Indo-Afghan affairs. New Delhi is particularly worried with any attempts to form an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and it backs the US-Russia and EU-UK positions on this issue.

“With uncertainty surrounding the intra-Afghan talks amid growing violence, prudence demands a cautious approach. While the Taliban's stature has improved internationally with the changing perspectives of the US, Russia and even of Iran, and assured support of China and Pakistan, internally it has not been accepted by all players,” said former deputy national security adviser SD Pradhan. “In the new dispensation, the Taliban are likely to share power with others. India should strengthen its links with other ethnic groups and former supporters of the Northern Alliance and identify second-rung leaders of the Taliban who could be approached later should that be required. India should ensure that it does not get marginalised in this strategically important country when a new dispensation comes to power,” he said.

Tilak Devasher, a member of the National Security Advisory Board of India and an author of several books on Pakistan, is of the opinion that the Taliban had adopted the “a good cop, bad cop” strategy. “The Taliban want to undermine the support base of the Ashraf Ghani government and to weaken the current government in Kabul through an outreach with India which has refrained from any engagement with the Taliban,” he said.