Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, for long a propagator of the view that institutions are always stronger than individuals, has not been able to put his money where his mouth is

In these troubled times, it is instructive to watch the developments in Pakistan because they suggest the pattern of things to come in the weeks and months ahead. Prime Minister Imran Khan, for long a propagator of the view that institutions are always stronger than individuals, has not been able to put his money where his mouth is.

In the past, he is on record as having said that Army chiefs should never get an extension, as the wrong message is sent out. Well, he has done exactly that. Pakistan’s Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s term has been extended for another three years in view of the “regional security environment”, an official announcement said.

Bajwa, 58, who was appointed as chief by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 2016, was to retire this November. But given his proximity to the prime minister — not to mention his massive de facto presence as the most powerful man in Pakistan — this was only to be expected.

The other development in the neighbouring country is its TV coverage of politics in general, and Kashmir in particular. If that is to be taken as an indication, it would appear almost certain that Pakistan is planning — indeed, will have to plan something — to save its face on Kashmir. All that think-tanks in Islamabad are debating is what to do next when curfew is relaxed in Jammu & Kashmir and people are allowed physical and electronic mobility. That is when Pakistan will start making its moves, it can safely be inferred.

Last night, one of Pakistan’s leading anchors gathered three former Pakistani High Commissioners to India to get their views on the latest situation in New Delhi and the Kashmir Valley. It came as no surprise that all the three were agreed on one thing: Pakistan cannot allow India to dictate terms in Kashmir and will have to take action to help their brethren in the Valley and elsewhere to organise resistance against India with the help of some ‘aggressive’ diplomacy.

What it implies is that Pakistan will up its ante on conducting diplomatic offensive on Kashmir in prominent world capitals. In military terms, the scale of infiltration will go up as the Pakistani Army is keeping the LoC hot with consistent firing across the border. Such firing means only one thing: providing cover for militants to sneak in to Indian territory.

Pertinently, it is here that the role of Indian intelligence agencies comes in. The Ajit Doval-led intelligence spooks, who have done a fine job over the last few years, have to ensure that Pakistan does not create trouble in India’s hinterland, as it is wont to do. With Islamabad claiming ‘Kashmiri disaffection’ on a large scale, it gives them the handle to say that any attack on the Indian mainland is the job of Kashmiris fighting for self-determination.

The Modi government, by its actions in Kashmir, has demonstrated that they are not status quoists like Congress, which has simply refused to take any steps anywhere, much less whittle down Article 370 in Kashmir. But, the real battle of attrition could have just begun now.