Pakistan’s concerns … as expressed by a senior retired officer*

With the Indian military set to induct five units of the S-400 air defence system into service by the early 2020s, a number of the new weapons systems are likely to be deployed on India’s north-western borders where the bulk of India’s forces are currently stationed.

The S-400, widely considered as the most advanced long range surface to air missile system in the world, is set to become a game changer in the balance of power between India and Pakistan, with its deployment seriously undermining Pakistani security. The weapon’s 400 km range when deploying highly precise 40N6 hypersonic missiles in particular, poses a considerable threat to Pakistani aircraft deep inside the country’s home space. The S-400 will provide India with coverage over almost entire northern and western Pakistan and would allow the Indian forces to shoot down Pakistani fighters at will. Should India choose to deploy the system as far west as Amritsar, the S-400 would be able to threaten Pakistani aircraft even over Peshawar. Pakistan’s territory is long, but not deep, and this plays into Indian hands.

With the S-400 capable of engaging up to 36 targets simultaneously, including a combination of aircraft and both ballistic and cruise missiles, the weapons system poses a considerable threat to Pakistani forces in the event of a shooting war. With the S-400 designed to shoot down some of the fastest, highest flying, stealthiest and most manoeuvrable fighters in the world including the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter, Pakistan’s older, lighter and non-stealthy aircraft should provide the system with little challenge—and the PAF could well suffer heavy losses in the opening hours of a conflict should they be deployed within range of the S-400. With just two units of the S-400 able to cover more than half of Pakistan’s territory, this poses a considerable threat. Even the Pakistani fifth generation light fighter jets currently under development under Project Azm are unlikely to fare well against the S-400. Pakistani support aircraft including Il-78 aerial tankers, Y-8 AWACS platforms, and Falcon 20 electronic warfare aircraft, large and non-manoeuvrable as they are, would also be denied access within most of the country’s own airspace and are highly vulnerable even at extreme ranges.

Compounding this threat, the Pakistani ballistic missile arsenal which has heavily relied upon as an asymmetric measure to neutralise larger Indian forces, which includes advanced platforms such as the Ghauri, Ababeel and Shaheen 3, would also be vulnerable to the S-400, with each Indian air defence unit well able to intercept and destroy dozens of these missiles at a time. The result would not only be an inability of the Pakistan Air Force to protect its own skies, let alone engage Indian forces on an offensive, but also the blunting of the country’s retaliatory capabilities. The implications of the S-400 therefore are truly severe for Pakistan’s security.

However, there are a number of measures that the Pakistani military can take to strengthen its defences with the S-400 in mind. While Pakistani aircraft will be unable to effectively respond to incursions by India’s fighters because of the S-400’s presence, the country’s own air defences will remain unaffected. While operating without air support will put an immense strain on Pakistan’s surface-to-air missile platforms, a strengthening of the country’s air defence network could go a long way towards denying Indian fighters control of the skies. Fortifying air defence sites and radar installations, possibly in underground bunkers as per the approach taken by North Korea, remains a highly viable option. Acquiring more advanced air defence systems, possibly the Chinese HQ-9C or even the S-400 itself, would also be a viable strategy, which would effectively create a ‘no fly zone’ for the air forces of both countries and thus nullify any Indian advantage.

Pakistan could also move to deploy long-range artillery such as its Nasr missile systems closer to the border, which would be capable of targeting S-400 sites deep inside Indian territory - thus forcing India to deploy its systems even further away east thus reducing the area coverage of Pakistani territory. To keep its missile forces viable, Pakistan could also invest in both submarine-launched ballistic missiles to target India from its southern coast, an undefended area which will likely not be covered by the S-400, as also developing more advanced ballistic missiles capable of reaching higher speeds and manoeuvring in flight, all to serve in improving viability of the country’s missile forces against the S-400. 

While the upcoming S-500 has been designed as the first air defence platform capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles, the S-400 cannot do this. Indeed, more advanced missiles could well be used to launch precision strikes on Indian S-400 batteries in the early stages of a conflict and thus largely neutralise the threat to Pakistani aircraft - while also allowing Pakistan to bring its older missiles into play. Ultimately, while the S-400 is set to become a considerable game changer, all is not lost for Pakistani forces which can take a number of measures to better handle the threat. With both countries now under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and unlikely to resort to a major open conflict to resolve disputes in future, the prospects for the S-400 being actively employed against Pakistani forces remain somewhat slim.

*Posted on the Internet