by Brig Arun Bajpai

Kick that Pakistan should have got 15 years back when Americans, hoping that they will be able to reform Pakistan to really fight against terror, started aiding Pakistan economically and militarily in 2002, Pakistan has got now got from American president Donald Trump, in the form of a tweet on 01 Jan 2018, saying that If Pakistan does not stop aiding and sponsoring Haqqani network and Taliban against US troops operating in Afghanistan and Afghan people, US will cut of all aid to Pakistan. Till date US has given to Pakistan aid worth 33 Billion Dollars. Current American aid package to Pakistan is 25.5 corer dollars (1700 cores Rs) per year.

American Achilles heel with Pakistan has been the fact that its more than one lakh troops operating in Afghanistan, a few years back, fighting against Taliban and Haqqani network, had to be maintained by the supply lines from land routes passing through Pakistan to reach land locked Afghanistan. Pakistan has been fully exploiting this American and NATO weakness. Pakistan has been sponsoring Taliban and Haqqani Network Jehadis to take shelter in its soil and attack American and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Surely Americans knew it but short of warning Pakistan it could do nothing much for obvious reasons. Things of course has changed now. America has reduced its troop strength in Afghanistan to just 10000.If Pakistan acts truant then America has an option to use more difficult Northern route or the newly opened Chabahar route by India going to Afghanistan.

As expected, Pakistan is all balloons and blunderbuss on this recent aid cut off threat of American president Donald Trump. They are trotting up same old arguments, with no takers, that they have sacrificed so much in fight against terror and that they have been front line state on this issue and words to this effect. Whole world knows that they are fountain head of all Jehadi terror activities; they should be better called Terroristan than Pakistan. Now china has rushed to defend its all weather friend Pakistan. It says world community should accept Pakistan’s exemplary contribution in fighting against terror. But if Pakistan thinks that China will go beyond these platitudes it is sadly mistaken. China does not believe in giving any aid. It gives loans on very high rates. Sri Lanka and Philippines will bear this out.

Pakistan worry should not be these 1700 corers of American aid that will get cut off. It should be the cascading effect which American aid blockade will take on other loan giving agencies to Pakistan, including American dominated World Bank. Recently IMF has given warning to Pakistan of blocking all loans if it does not implement economic reforms. To improve its economic state Pakistan in August 2017 had taken 5.81 Billion Dollar loan from World Bank but no improvement has taken place. By Jun 2018 Pakistan has to pay back 18 billion dollars taken as loan. It has only 12 billion dollars available for repayment today. In other words economic situation is very bleak in Pakistan and it is fast hurtling into becoming a colony of China. However instead of jettisoning its policy of supporting Jehad and becoming a good boy of the world, Pakistan and its military continues with its self defeating policies. This American warning to Pakistan is unlikely to get any positive results.US will have to be more aggressive on Pakistan to get any fruitful results.

Brig Arun Bajpai (Retd) is a distinguished Defence and Strategic Analyst. Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDN. IDN does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same