by Brigadier Arun Bajpai

The unrest that started in Mashhad the second largest town of Iran on Thursday the 28 December, has now spread all over Iran with protesters attacking and trying to capture police stations and military bases. Of course they have been repulsed but the death toll is mounting. Iranian President Hassan Rouhanis statement that Iran has seen many similar events and passed them easily, lacks the seriousness with which his government should see and tackle this issue at hand.

Till date, 13 people have died across the country in these protests with Monday night taking the heaviest toll and 430 protesters arrested. What is worrisome about these protests is that protesters are not demanding some specific issues , from shouting slogans against their highest cleric ruling the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to investors losing money in fake companies, to uncontrolled graft in the country, to lack of development as also lack of any economic revolution promised in 2016 after the Americans lifted the sanctions on Iran, The protesters demands are covering a very large spectrum and is indicative of the fact that people across the board are annoyed with the current governing dispensation in Iran which is a dangerous sign. This indicates that if soon something is not done to meet protesters demand and they are put down with just use of force, this will allow the problem to simmer underneath, and again burst with more bang later.

One issue of unrest, which is common and is emerging loud and clear is that People of Iran are not happy that their Government, which is busy competing with Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq, to enhance their influence, instead of looking after their own people well being. They are also not happy with Iranian Government backing with money and resources, the people of Palestine and Hezbollah of Lebanon. This is a genuine protest of the Iranian people. They have suffered a lot due to American led sanctions on Iran, as a result of Iranian nuclear ambitions. It is only in 2016 that Iran had finally bowed down to these restrictions and agreed to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Instead of bettering the lot of its people, Maulanas of Iran ruling that country, are still busy competing with Saudi Arabia for influence in West Asia.

By befriending America and also accepting the presence of Israel, even having clandestine relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia under its new crown price Bin Salman is following a very pragmatic foreign policy. Saudis have even liberalised their authoritarian regime a bit to ward of any protests. Surely Iranians are watching it, in the modern world of interconnectivity and communications no country will be able to suppress its people for long. However Iran is still not liberalising. It has official stand that it will send Israel to hell. So Iran which is leader of Shia Muslims is emerging as villain of the peace. Ayatollahs of Iran must now sit back and analyse that wind is blowing against them. If they do not wake up people of Iran may again change the regime as they did in 1979 when they overthrew Shah of Iran and brought in Ayatollahs.

Brig Arun Bajpai (Retd) is a distinguished Defence and Strategic Analyst. Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDN. IDN does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same