It was a crescendo on a gradually increasing scale of discontent with Pakistan. It took four months to reach after Trump announced his new South Asia policy in August

by Seema Sirohi

US President Donald Trump's first tweet of 2018 was a blistering attack on Pakistan, accusing the country of "lies and deceit" and making "fools" of US leaders. "No more!" Trump declared, setting off a Twitter war with Pakistani leaders who volleyed back, saying that the US had given them nothing but "invective and mistrust".

Trump's opening salvo should be read in full, "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!"

Giving Hell to a Haven 

It was a crescendo on a gradually increasing scale of discontent with Pakistan. It took four months to reach after Trump announced his new South Asia policy in August. That's a nanosecond in diplomatic time, and Trump seems to have made up his mind about Pakistan.

His early morning tweet sent experts scrambling for explanations. Some went back to their well-honed scepticism about his ability to plan and execute, while others declared that his attack would only give more leverage to China. But Pakistan is already in China's corner, and only the most delusional would think otherwise.

Pakistan's former ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani offered the most incisive take, "It's the first time aUS president has put his own name and reputation behind the pressure on Pakistan. George [W] Bush never said anything directly and Barack Obama, even after the discovery of Osama bin Laden, left it to officials to deliver the message of displeasure."

But the $64 million question remains: is Trump's threat another rerun of a movie seen many times before, more cheap talk that comes easy? Or is something indeed afoot? The question will be answered in time if Trump withholds $255 million in US aid as officials have threatened and/or rescinds Pakistan's 'Major Non-Nato ally' status, and sanctions Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers to mount pressure.

Internal discussions have the Pentagon and the National Security Council on one side and the State Department on the other. No prizes for guessing who's defending Pakistan. But the Pakistani establishment is rattled.

Pakistani ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry has tried everything from playing victim, offering to be a "bridge" to China to harking back to the good days of US-Pakistan friendship as a mutually beneficial enterprise. But White House officials are unmoved. One of them recently told me Chaudhry was going about everything the "wrong way".

A fair reading of this administration's record without our liberal bias would show that Trump's attitude towards Pakistan is more realistic than previous presidents'. He appears more willing to break the decades-old habit of feeding a beast that devours.

His tweet was not a surprise — he and senior administration officials have been building up to it. The policy direction is clear, Haqqani said, and Pakistani observers are not reading the tea leaves correctly. Some recent events leading up to Trump's extraordinary tweet are helpful in understanding where things are headed.

US Vice-President Mike Pence, while on a surprise visit to Afghanistan before Christmas, told US troops at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan that "President Trump has put Pakistan on notice". Also in December, the Pentagon warned Pakistan that it would take unilateral action if Islamabad did not act to curb terrorists and end safe havens.

Creating Terror in Pak's Heart 

Gen. John Nicholson, commander of the Nato coalition in Afghanistan, said in November he hadn't seen "any change" in Pakistan's behaviour despite several high-level engagements to persuade Islamabad. He noted that Taliban leaders were "living in comfort" inside Pakistan "with plenty of drug money".

Visits to Pakistan by senior US officials, including by defence secretary James Mattis, bore little fruit.

Mattis even tried dangling carrots: last November, the Pentagon got the US Congress to remove Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) from the list of groups against which Pakistan would be required to take demonstrable action as a condition for receiving US aid. The delinking of the India-focused terrorist group was to tempt Pakistan to act against the Haqqani Network. It didn't work.

Then Pakistan released Hafiz Saeed, the LeT mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, adding to anger and frustration in Washington. A harsh White House statement followed, demanding "immediate re-arrest and prosecution" of the terrorist leader.

The accumulation of unmet US demands, including Islamabad denying access to a Haqqani Network operative captured during the rescue of an American-Canadian couple last October, has pushed the process to a tipping point.

Trump is also 'changing gears' in Afghanistan as he enters his second year in office. Thousands more advisers will be sent to help the Afghan security forces. Last year, the Pentagon began sending an additional 3,000 troops to Afghanistan, raising US force strength to 14,000.

Rules of engagement have already been altered to allow greater use of offensive air power against the Taliban. More drone strikes inside Pakistan to target terrorist leaders are also on the menu of options.

If all of the above don't represent a change in strategy, what does? Trump has said he wants to "fight to win". He has begun the year with a bang. Let's hope it doesn't end it in a whimper.